Rising oil prices and Africa's oil future

As international oil prices continue to spike due to the increased anxiety of an impeding war with Iran and the crippling sanctions it faces, with some of Iran's leading oil export destinations siding with the US government in imposing sanctions on buying Iranian oil.

However, the perception in Africa is far more different. Countries along the Eastern African region continue to discover newer oil and natural gas finds in a region that has previously remained unexplored. As a whole, Africa is 5 times less explored than any other continent. So the potential to find newer oil patches are highly plausible. The East African region is slowly heading towards being a key exported of oil in the years to come.

Today oil prices continue to spiral. Within the short term it is expected to remain high, especially due to he speculation over an Israeli attack on Iran. If that eventually takes place there is bound to be an increase in the oil prices, which are hovering at nearly $125 per barrel (selling at $5 a gallon in the US and $8 in France), prices that have historically not been realized.

 America's oil consumption has over the Obama administration steadily declined under the administrations policy of reducing America's dependence on foreign oil reserves. Pump prices have been climbing and this has greatly unnerved the administration because of the upcoming election. The same applies to their Atlantic neighbor, the British administration of PM David Cameron. There was a recent article that indicated a direct correlation between pump prices and the voting in of public officials, and in this scenario Obama is in trouble.

"Make a list of the big issues in the world and put a check next to the ones that have an important energy component. The list is long: Iran; Iraq; the Arab Spring; terrorism; the rise of China; resource competition worldwide; the focus in our pivot to Asia on keeping open sea lanes for the shipment of energy through the Indian Ocean, Straits of Malacca, and the South China Sea; the future of the Japanese economy; our concerns about instability in Africa; the rise of the BRICS and other emerging powers." (David Rothkoph, Foreign Policy Magazine article - http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/04/02/dear_ayatollah_khamenei_go_ahead_shut_down_those_straits?page=0,1)

African states have largely raised economic growth due to the commodities boom, largely spurred by China's growth. As the Chinese economic forecasts have been re-forecast-ed to signify declining economic growth rates over the next year, African countries will bear the brunt of declining economic growth too. When it comes to oil however, there is bound to be a drop in prices only when sanctions on Iran are lowered or when Saudi Arabia pumps more reserves to meet the demand brought by Iran.

Over the long term, oil exports from African countries may largely help to reduce the international demand. However, Africa's population shall continue to grow at an exponential rate, doubling in size by 2050 to 2 billion people, with the largest growth rates being witnessed in East and West Africa. This shall represent a huger appetite for oil and may lead to increased prices due to ncreasing demand. China's continued growth can also only be fueled by increased oil consumption and India's rise may follow a similar pattern.

Generally, there shall be an increased demand from the East for oil but a large decrease from the West. Western governments are pumping money into looking for newer technologies that rely less on foreign oil and more on new innovations. The oil economy shall continue to remain relevant especially to the East and Africa, and less so for the West. But as for now, oil remains the game changer in building and shaping economies that export it and also changes the politics of nations that are affected by the high prices of oil.

Failure by the Kenyan Governmen or Military?

Kenya's borders have largely been described as porous since we gained independence. It does not help matters any better especially when when the most failed state in the world, Somali, is along our Eastern border. The border has largely been mared by cross border conflicts, arms smuggling, money laundering, human and drug trafficking, amongst other criminal and human offences.

Only last week there was a new incursion by he Ugandan authorities into Ugingo island, with Migingo still being contested by both paties. At the same time there was an incursion by the Merille tribesmen of Ehiopia into the Northern Kenyan side, resulting in the death of 20 Turkanan people. The security forces were apparently out numbered due to the large size of the imposters, with some estimates establishing that they were up to 2000 and have up to 900 armed folks.

The PM yesterday made a statement to the effect of apportioning blame, or directing queries, to the Kenyan military. Granted, that they receive up to Ksh. 40 billion in budgetary allotment and yet fail to protect citizens from existential threats emanating from foreign sources. It is their duty to protect and defend the country from this threat. But i must also congratulate them on their effective job in doing so on the eastern front along the Somali border. That without a doubt is a strategy that they should implement on the Northern side so as to avert any loss of life.

That being said i can also reflect on the incompetecy of the government to use the resources at their disposal to effectively coordinate and liase the ministry of internal securiy and the MOD to counter any threat. It would be wise to say that even the police and Administration Police are also capable of protecting Turkanans and other Kenyans.

To continue to apportion blame may not solve the issue, but may add fuel to the fire. What now needs to be done is for the executive to effectively ensure that this does not happen again. Inaction may portray weakness and inability of the government to defend its citizens. A more robust framework needs to be established so as to ensure national security and sovereignty is protected as enshrined in our new constitution.