Decoding the UhuRuto Foreign Policy

Foreign policy remains an important docket especially to the current administration, despite the lack of pubic chatter on the issues that revolve around it. Successive regimes have each molded their own foreign policies that are determined by the national interests at the time, coupled with the charisma and perception that moulds the leaders that prowess the states foreign policy.

According to the Foreign Policy Global Failed States Index 2013, Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the largest conflation of Failed States globally with 7 of the top ten being African countries. Within the region, Kenya is ranked second on the list at 17th place, whilst South Sudan is 2nd. All the neighboring countries are indicated as having a critical level in the Failed States Index. This does evoke strong sentiments in regards to the analysis of the region vis-a-vis the rest of the world. 

The current administration is by far one of the youngest the Kenyan populace has ever had in history. Therefore this generally has been shaped by a team of stronger and more energetic individuals that are ready not only to exude their power locally, but regionally and globally.

Further from the all too analyzed consequences of the International Criminal Court trials on the two principles, they do have a mandate that is bound to shape how Kenya interacts with the world, and they are all too aware that they are under domestic and global scrutiny.

The two principals have began to strongly utilized their greatest handicap, the ICC cases vis-à-vis their relation with some Western nations, and ensured its subsequent effect is increased African solidarity that shall then be translated into bilateral and multilateral agreements which spur African economic growth. An important win was shaped during the African Union 50^th celebration and subsequent heads of state forum where there was vocal sympathy for the principals in out rightly demonizing the ICC. This proved that only within two months of occupying office they were able to garner a significant voting margin in getting Africa’s support, a fete that shall also shape their interaction with other African partners and builds newer contacts and rapport.

Key to advancing foreign policy has been the urge to strive to revive inter-African trade. According to UNCTAD, as a total of Africa’s total trade percentage within Sub-Saharan Africa in 1997, it accounted for 20 percent of trade, and has further dropped to 11 percent as of 2013. The policy has long been neglected, with global partners remaining dominant trading partners whilst neighboring regions often bicker over meager protectionism schemes and mostly fear domination by regional partners. There has also largely been a concentration on exporting commodity goods, which face volatile price fluctuation, thus affecting long-term economic growth. On the other hand, Asian and European states sell off 50 percent and 70 percent of their trading goods within their regions respectivelty.

After nearly 5 months in power, the president has spanned three continents, officiated a state visit to China (securing a whooping Ksh. 425 billion in development assistance) and the visiting Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan only last week, been to 5 of our neighboring states and visited both Western and Southern African states. Deputy President Ruto has covered an Asia tour of Japan and other African states. This represents a significant readjustment especially after former President Mwai Kibaki was not much of a jet setter, marking a stronger shift in especially high level leadership negotiation and significantly opening up Kenya’s communications with the world.

In relations to regional development President Kenyatta has managed to initiate increased dialogue and set development guidelines and projects with Presidents Museveni and Kagame of Rwanda and Uganda within a short time span, with plans to ensure that there is a heads of states review every two months, with the latest slotted for late September in Kigali. Already there is a Ksh. 1.2 trillion joint railway investment already in the offing amongst the three states, with further planbs on support for an oil refinery in Uganda, amongst many other regional development projects. This will vastly alter the economic situation for millions of the beneficiaries.

Another key agreement was shaped recently in Nigeria where the President offered Nigeria support for their bid to run for the non-permanent rotating UN Security Council seat next year, with a reciprocal intention expected from the Nigerian’s come the next 3 years. Furthermore, the recent Nigerian Presidential visit bolstered ties between the two countries, enhancing cooperation in across various sectors.

By vastly increasing regional and continental trade the Uhuru government shall set forth in motion a strong declaration of their intent to improve the economic situation not only of Kenyan’s but the continent. It will most importantly seal their legacy in enforcing a much stronger and more robust foreign policy in the Kenyan scene, one which is still being shaped to ensure it remains a success.

Despite the snub by US President Obama in his African tour, the two governments still cooperate on a large set of issues of significant mutual interest. This is further going to be accelerated by the discovery of rare earth minerals in Kwale county at an estimated net worth of Ksh. 5.6 trillion. Noting the chokehold China has over its own exports, and the reality that this find will make the country a top 5 global exporter of the commodity, it shall be likely to attract the attention of many major states that utilize it in their high tech industries, namely Japan and the United States amongst others. This is further coupled with the oil and gas finds in the country.

One of the largest foreign policy challenges remains the ongoing instability and fight against extremists in Somalia, where the Kenyan Defense Forces are embedded with AMISOM. With one of the largest refugee camps still within Kenya hosting over half a million Somali refugee’s, it is in Kenya’s interests to guarantee that there is lasting security within Somalia and that there is a stable administration in place that can ensure future stability. Mutual cooperation especially in regards to security cooperation shall ensure that there is an increased environment of peace, which in turn shall increase investment in the country, limiting future conflicts through development.

Continued progress must be paid to ensure that the EAC charter is adhered to. In light of the recent heads of states meetings by the presidents of Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda, the dis-inclusion of Tanzania has raised some eyebrows within some circles. However, there has been strong signs that this was just a smaller issue, noting that President Museveni hosted Presidents Kagame and Kikwete in Kampala last week to ensure that their spat was resolved amicably. This proved that there was mutual cooperation within the EAC in ensuring that regional issues are dealt with internally.

Despite the challenges that the President and his deputy face at The Hague, there is still increased thirst from international investors to continue funding projects throughout the country. The only time there shall be a serious problem would be if the suspects refuse to cooperate with the international court, a prospect that is proving impossible to occur at this point noting their continued cooperation with the court.

What will the future foreign policy portend? It is relative because foreign policy is never constant and is highly unpredictable at times. However, security and regional economic development shall top the list of priorities that the government shall face.

The foreign policy docket may still be restructuring, but future gains can only be commensurate to whether they hire career professionals and support staff that is dedicated to the countries national interests and the administrations agenda. For far too long there has been mass politicization of the docket, filled with nepotism and cronyism in some cases. In order to achieve greater soft power and prowess increased intra-African trade, we must have a national foreign docket that is united and built out of the strong will and patriotism we all hold dearly.