Dichotomy of Foreign Policy or expanding options: An analysis of the Jubilee FP approach

            After half a year under the Jubilee government there is a formation of a clearer foreign policy that can ultimately be tagged the UhuRuto doctrine; a modal shift in ideals and practice from the previous coalition government or even the NARC government’s strategy. It is more ambitious in nature, extremely hands on and has a larger scope and mandate than any we have seen in recent Kenyan history.

            Ever since the President took office he has undertaken a foreign trip at the rate of a weekly visit per month. The charming nature of the head of state has been his strongest asset in easily securing new bonds and friendships with various other heads of states globally. His new itinerary has jet set him into three continents, a fete that was not even achieved under former President Kibaki’s administration within such a small time span.

            Debate has arisen as to the consequences of the modal shift in foreign policy, espoused as more Eastern oriented and “snobbish” to the West. Under the previous administration there was a perceived sense that the government was friendly to all governments (even under increased Chinese investments and a visit by Presidents Hu Jintao and Mahmoud Ahmedinejad), and a multitude of visits by senior Obama administration officials (a visit by US Vice Pres. Joe Biden and two by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton). Currently, there have been limited visits by Western leaders and a photo op with the British PM was turned down when the President went to the London conference on Somalia. Obama’s perceived snub of Kenya was seen as a sting by the Kenyan people.

            In light of the new vote by the UN Security Council, there was a raft of strong reactions emerging from Kenyan leaders, especially from the Deputy President who mentioned that they now know who their true friends are. Such sentiments I believe in the field of foreign policy should be made with caution. I believe that every state should vote according to their own conscious, noting that it is their sovereign right to do so accordingly. Moving forward there must be increased dialogue with all players. Even the British government dispatched its deputy National Security Advisor to the cabinet last week to explain Her Majesty’s government’s position in light of the UNSC vote, and how they shall push for video trials in the cases to avoid the leaders not being present.

            Kenya’s Foreign Affairs ministry has managed to lobby various states throughout Africa and the world at large into supporting its cause. The push is commendable, proving beyond a doubt that the country can amass a large continental support base. When analyzing Kenya’s new foreign policy shift and the massive efforts we are undertaking globally, it is important to note that various states also do have an opinion of how we are undertaking these challenges relating to the ICC. I still believe that state-centralism is largely sporadic, with each international player acting according to how they believe they shall gain an added advantage and remain relevant in the international sphere, whilst balancing this out with the perception in built by the countries citizens, after all a key shaper of foreign policy is based upon the opinions and perceptions of the countries citizens.

            The country’s relation with the West must remain one built on mutual cooperation and trust. In light of the Westgate attacks there was vast international condemnation. Most of all it was the West that sent its forensic experts to aid in the effort of the anthropological analysis. For over a decade the country has sought assistance from the West on security, educational and health related matters. These sectors still demand strong investments from these quarters. It is therefore unlikely that the government shall sever relations anytime soon with the West over the ICC cases.

Pentagon officials recently disclosed an upsurge in their cooperation and expansion efforts in assisting the Kenyan army and security forces, especially at the Manda Bay airstrip (this will be done also at the US base in Djibouti). This is part of the push to secure the greater Horn of Africa region against terrorism and piracy. Off the Kenyan coast there is the NATO based operation ATALANTA, which consists of NATO ships used to counter pirate attacks and escort ships in international waters. Also recently a US based energy firm came on board into pumping funds to power up the 100MW wind turbine plant in Kajiado under the Power Africa initiative launched by President Obama during his recent trip to Tanzania. The National Treasury is also about to debut its largest ever Eurobond next year, with the lead consultant being JP Morgan. Such efforts prove that there is a lasting and strong relationship between Kenya and other development partners such as the US and other Western peers.

            Much hype has been created on social media on the government shifting its focus more towards the East and sidelining the West. These are detrimental sentiments that add no value to the prestige, international appeal or broader image of the country. Yes, the country must forge new ties throughout the world; but we must also have the ability to remain cordial with old friends even in times of strain. The country has coexisted in a neighborhood filled with conflict over many years yet we have remained cordial with them all. We must now do the same in times of a difference of opinion that involves us directly.

Recent parliamentary debate by some Kenyan MP’s have been negatively obstinate towards the British government, especially after the deputy National Security Advisor to the cabinet was in the country immediately after the UNSC vote and presented the government with an offer from the British government in pushing for a video trial at the Hague, which has been taken negatively as a counter proposal towards their push for immunity for the President and his deputy. The speaker has decided to allow the house to debate the UK and its foreign relations with Kenya.

            Great exception must be paid towards Kenya’s relationship with any state. If we immediately decide to castigate the British government over a difference in opinion then how likely will we be to do the same to other countries throughout the world, especially those that are smaller than ours? Will a mere difference of opinion attract the wrath of Kenyan MP’s or the stern warnings of our Foreign Ministry? Should we not be using diplomatic undertones rather than overt rhetoric to solve our differences?

            Chest thumping may be well and good (and quite justly the defining nature of the 10^th parliament), but it is also detrimental towards the development of the country’s foreign relations if we take hard positions and refuse to compromise with all players or offer voices of reason. It is noteworthy that even before the UNSC vote it was conclusive that the resolution would not pass, so there was no surprise there. The un-moderated caucuses that were held in the day’s privy to the vote would have indicated that many states would abstain, and significantly enough there was no out right refusal. If parliament wants to debate the conduct of the British government over the UNSC decision, then it must do the same to the other eight countries that abstained alongside the UK, otherwise the argument would prove to be baseless.

Will there be a change in the relations with the West with all these new and ongoing developments? I seemingly doubt. Our development partners remain strong friends in many of our development needs, having “provided Ksh. 212 billion to education, healthcare, infrastructure, agriculture and natural resources, economic growth and wealth creation, human rights, women’s advancement, and governance” (Daily Nation, p.13, 11/20/13).

Top 10 Export Destination
		US Dollars (Million)	% of total exports
1	Uganda	67,450	13
2	Tanzania	46,036	8.9
3	UK	40,630	7.8
4	Netherlands	31,056	6
5	UAE	28,608	5.5
6	USA	26,405	5.1
7	Pakistan	23,889	4.6
8	Egypt	21,464	4.1
9	Rwanda	16,151	3.1
10	Germany	9,771	1.9
	Total	517,847	60.1

Source: KNBS, Economic Survey 2013

Noting the chart above, many of our development partners have remained the same for a number of years. Our export based market has been largely built on coffee, tea, horticulture and manufactured goods that are shipped out to these countries. Our relationship based on our economic stability and growth is founded on the principle of ensuring that there is an appetite for our produce in these countries. The UK alone accounts for our largest foreign investor and highest number of tourists visiting the country each year. Significantly enough, Pakistan, USA and the UK all abstained during the UNSC vote, and they represent nearly 20 percent of our total exports for 2012, with strong indications showing that the growth is expected to climb when accounting for 2013 begins.

Going East is based on the premise that our development gap can be financed through various actors across South East Asia, China, Japan and South Korea. The assumption is not flawed, based on the impetus in funds that the government has gained from the region over the past six months. However, there are also opportunities to increase the countries investment in businesses that demand high skill and significantly more advancements than what is offered in Asia. This includes the technological sphere mostly, where the country is making unprecedented growth vis-à-vis its African counterparts. Blue chip firms and large multinational corporations have set up base in Kenya, including IBM, Google, and GE amongst others. This is a representation of their confidence in the country. Strong measures should be undertaken to ensure that we maintain this reputation and continue attracting not only Western firms, but also large conglomerates from Asia and South America.

Rhetoric may continue to gain traction amongst the President’s supporters, but there shall largely remain little change with Western countries. Our foreign policy shall continue to seek newer development partners especially from the BRIC nations and other newer emerging markets. However, old partners shall continue to add great impetus in our development needs and investments, even though the backdrop of the global financial crisis continues to act as a dogma that a financial crunch still exists, yet private enterprises have more cash reserves than ever before. Various alternatives can reduce the need to pay higher interest rates in future, so it is crucial that we leave a larger base of options for the future in order as to ensure the country has a higher bargaining power.

Comparing African countries

Came across this helpful infograph on comparing data among African countries. It is very useful for research work and for general information and comparative statistical purposes.

I covers various fields ranging from health, stability, economy, infrastructure, education, diversity, rights and size. Each of these categories consists of their own various four sub-categories; for example infrastructure is broken down into access to electricity, access to water, internet and mobile and railways,roads & airports.

http://www.greatbusinessschools.org/africa/

Decoding the UhuRuto Foreign Policy

Foreign policy remains an important docket especially to the current administration, despite the lack of pubic chatter on the issues that revolve around it. Successive regimes have each molded their own foreign policies that are determined by the national interests at the time, coupled with the charisma and perception that moulds the leaders that prowess the states foreign policy.

According to the Foreign Policy Global Failed States Index 2013, Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the largest conflation of Failed States globally with 7 of the top ten being African countries. Within the region, Kenya is ranked second on the list at 17th place, whilst South Sudan is 2nd. All the neighboring countries are indicated as having a critical level in the Failed States Index. This does evoke strong sentiments in regards to the analysis of the region vis-a-vis the rest of the world. 

The current administration is by far one of the youngest the Kenyan populace has ever had in history. Therefore this generally has been shaped by a team of stronger and more energetic individuals that are ready not only to exude their power locally, but regionally and globally.

Further from the all too analyzed consequences of the International Criminal Court trials on the two principles, they do have a mandate that is bound to shape how Kenya interacts with the world, and they are all too aware that they are under domestic and global scrutiny.

The two principals have began to strongly utilized their greatest handicap, the ICC cases vis-à-vis their relation with some Western nations, and ensured its subsequent effect is increased African solidarity that shall then be translated into bilateral and multilateral agreements which spur African economic growth. An important win was shaped during the African Union 50^th celebration and subsequent heads of state forum where there was vocal sympathy for the principals in out rightly demonizing the ICC. This proved that only within two months of occupying office they were able to garner a significant voting margin in getting Africa’s support, a fete that shall also shape their interaction with other African partners and builds newer contacts and rapport.

Key to advancing foreign policy has been the urge to strive to revive inter-African trade. According to UNCTAD, as a total of Africa’s total trade percentage within Sub-Saharan Africa in 1997, it accounted for 20 percent of trade, and has further dropped to 11 percent as of 2013. The policy has long been neglected, with global partners remaining dominant trading partners whilst neighboring regions often bicker over meager protectionism schemes and mostly fear domination by regional partners. There has also largely been a concentration on exporting commodity goods, which face volatile price fluctuation, thus affecting long-term economic growth. On the other hand, Asian and European states sell off 50 percent and 70 percent of their trading goods within their regions respectivelty.

After nearly 5 months in power, the president has spanned three continents, officiated a state visit to China (securing a whooping Ksh. 425 billion in development assistance) and the visiting Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan only last week, been to 5 of our neighboring states and visited both Western and Southern African states. Deputy President Ruto has covered an Asia tour of Japan and other African states. This represents a significant readjustment especially after former President Mwai Kibaki was not much of a jet setter, marking a stronger shift in especially high level leadership negotiation and significantly opening up Kenya’s communications with the world.

In relations to regional development President Kenyatta has managed to initiate increased dialogue and set development guidelines and projects with Presidents Museveni and Kagame of Rwanda and Uganda within a short time span, with plans to ensure that there is a heads of states review every two months, with the latest slotted for late September in Kigali. Already there is a Ksh. 1.2 trillion joint railway investment already in the offing amongst the three states, with further planbs on support for an oil refinery in Uganda, amongst many other regional development projects. This will vastly alter the economic situation for millions of the beneficiaries.

Another key agreement was shaped recently in Nigeria where the President offered Nigeria support for their bid to run for the non-permanent rotating UN Security Council seat next year, with a reciprocal intention expected from the Nigerian’s come the next 3 years. Furthermore, the recent Nigerian Presidential visit bolstered ties between the two countries, enhancing cooperation in across various sectors.

By vastly increasing regional and continental trade the Uhuru government shall set forth in motion a strong declaration of their intent to improve the economic situation not only of Kenyan’s but the continent. It will most importantly seal their legacy in enforcing a much stronger and more robust foreign policy in the Kenyan scene, one which is still being shaped to ensure it remains a success.

Despite the snub by US President Obama in his African tour, the two governments still cooperate on a large set of issues of significant mutual interest. This is further going to be accelerated by the discovery of rare earth minerals in Kwale county at an estimated net worth of Ksh. 5.6 trillion. Noting the chokehold China has over its own exports, and the reality that this find will make the country a top 5 global exporter of the commodity, it shall be likely to attract the attention of many major states that utilize it in their high tech industries, namely Japan and the United States amongst others. This is further coupled with the oil and gas finds in the country.

One of the largest foreign policy challenges remains the ongoing instability and fight against extremists in Somalia, where the Kenyan Defense Forces are embedded with AMISOM. With one of the largest refugee camps still within Kenya hosting over half a million Somali refugee’s, it is in Kenya’s interests to guarantee that there is lasting security within Somalia and that there is a stable administration in place that can ensure future stability. Mutual cooperation especially in regards to security cooperation shall ensure that there is an increased environment of peace, which in turn shall increase investment in the country, limiting future conflicts through development.

Continued progress must be paid to ensure that the EAC charter is adhered to. In light of the recent heads of states meetings by the presidents of Uganda, Kenya and Rwanda, the dis-inclusion of Tanzania has raised some eyebrows within some circles. However, there has been strong signs that this was just a smaller issue, noting that President Museveni hosted Presidents Kagame and Kikwete in Kampala last week to ensure that their spat was resolved amicably. This proved that there was mutual cooperation within the EAC in ensuring that regional issues are dealt with internally.

Despite the challenges that the President and his deputy face at The Hague, there is still increased thirst from international investors to continue funding projects throughout the country. The only time there shall be a serious problem would be if the suspects refuse to cooperate with the international court, a prospect that is proving impossible to occur at this point noting their continued cooperation with the court.

What will the future foreign policy portend? It is relative because foreign policy is never constant and is highly unpredictable at times. However, security and regional economic development shall top the list of priorities that the government shall face.

The foreign policy docket may still be restructuring, but future gains can only be commensurate to whether they hire career professionals and support staff that is dedicated to the countries national interests and the administrations agenda. For far too long there has been mass politicization of the docket, filled with nepotism and cronyism in some cases. In order to achieve greater soft power and prowess increased intra-African trade, we must have a national foreign docket that is united and built out of the strong will and patriotism we all hold dearly.

The Paradox that is Syria

It is morally indefensible for any government to use WMD's against its citizens, no matter the circumstances presented. This is a violation of their mandate to protect and defend their people. However, using Martin Luther King's speech "...fighting violence with violence only multiplies violence." As the dust has not yet settled from the Arab spring and regimes continue to face a raft of dilemma's on government formulation and meeting people's expectations, the prospect for regime change within Syria is significant in that a power vacuum may result in increased turmoil and a clamor for grasping power from various factions. The rebels remain largely without a defined or visible leadership structure, with various groups remaining independent and dis-conjoined. The question is what next after the Assad regime topples?
As the Syrian war continues to draw into the war rhetoric, there are many dynamics that are taking shape. Two heavy past experiences shape the outcome of the US response towards the Syrian crisis. The first is appeasement, based on the 1930's policy adopted by European countries to Germany, subsequently leading to a greater loss of life and an extension of the war. However, within the context of Syria, there is a greater threat that a lack of action in Syria will present various reactions from other world powers or aggressors. A violation by the US to adhere to its principles and stipulated policy goals would resound in other players questioning the extent as to which the US will adhere to other known pol,icy initiatives/promises in the rparts of the world. A good example of this would be in the case of China in regards to Taiwan, whereby the US claims it shall defend Taiwan in the event of an invasion, or North Korea and Iran in their pursuit of nuclear weapons.

Another angle for analysis is based on the Iraqi invasion in 2003 and the misgivings of the intelligence community when presenting evidence that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction. There is a greater demand for hard evidence to be disclosed by all players before any significant military action can be taken in Syria. Mere rhetoric shall not win the support of European and American citizens to engage in another war.

Forming a strong Syrian National Coalition will be on the top priority list for most Western leaders, since identifying another stronger power base will grant greater impetus towards the regime change option, creating greater availability of options in the liekjely event that Assad's administration will be ran out of power. Nonetheless, many rebel groups in Syria today are brutal and largely possess strong Islamic fundamentalist ideals in nature, with some linked to Al-Qaeda. Wiping away the regime would render more problems in the future for rebuilding Syria.

Overwhelming proof is beginning to show that the Assad regime is responsible for any chemical weapons attack. Military capabilities to launch a large scale chemical weapons attack requires very large military artillery capabilities, something the rebels are incapable of possessing.It would also prove counter productive for the rebels to engage in such fights.

The Arab League's reaction to the ongoing crisis may add a greater face value to the ongoing war, and result in some regional response to the crisis, especially from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Turkey and Jordan. The best way of solving the Syrian crisis would be to involve all these partners in formulating a grand strategy, ensuring that negotiating a stronger reaction towards the turmoil shall result in eventual peace. A coordinated regional solution, especially in forcing Assad to cooperate more effectively in the Geneva negotiations, would hopefully begin to quell the violence.

Party primaries are a party affair. Period!

Party nominations within the Kenyan electoral system have had been mired by a history filled with mistrust, violence and a charade by the loser’s in refusing to accept the results. Many of these party nominations have been cast in shoddy manners.

I do remember a time when I was the presiding officer within a polling station in Nairobi when they were choosing their nominee for the Member of Parliament. The level of corruption was sporadic and the threats were forceful and intimidating. However, the low voter turnout within some areas for the primary showed the apathy that many citizens tend to have towards the voting of their party nominees. With only 16 people having cast their votes I ended up declaring those results (though there were a number of other centre’s that had cases of rigging and highly inflated results).

Cases such as those I experienced are not new phenomena to anyone that has handled an election or party primary. However, the main question to be observed is how will the current nomination pan out and will it be a key indicator as to how the election in 44 days shall be? Will the parties face a shock in the nomination process when party big-wigs fall to the wayside of newbie’s? Shall the defeated nominees accept defeat or defect to smaller parties?

Logistical nightmares are the norm of the day across all party lines. Massive delays within the electoral process today should firstly not be passed onto the IEBC. The buck stops with the parties and they should have prepared their elections accordingly.  Parties must ensure democracy prevails, no matter how little the number of voters is. Massive delays tend to hinder a number of busy people from voting in their party representatives.  Subverting democracy is the first catalyst for heightening tension. Officials must also be thoroughly vetted and party nominees must ensure that they also hire agents to monitor the ground in areas that are prone to rigging.

Why am I protecting the integrity of the IEBC? This is because if we remember the last general election it was de to the systematic and endemic failure of the defunct Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) to give true and legitimate results to the election. Any whiff of incompetence on the part of the IEBC can result in their handling of the election being questioned by losers, thereby setting a bad precedence for the next general election. We must acknowledge that the party primaries remain a party affair until the general election when the nation decides who they shall appoint. Until then parties must take appropriate responsibility and blame for their mess and not pass the baton to an agency that is trying to prove its worth to Kenyans.

Any precipitation of violence within the primaries will be limited to various zones (if there are any reports of any), but shall not in my opinion be of much harm or inflict mass chaos. The perception in some areas is that if a certain candidate wins the party primary they are already one step into the positions they are fighting for due to party loyalty in certain zones. Losers will then try to defect to other minor parties and try and ensure they clinch a slot in the general election. The culture of accepting defeat has not been embedded into society. Many fail to acknowledge defeat in the face of it. Some may be justified, with their claims of not wanting to accept the outcome, but most will jump ship instantaneously.

If there is any outcome of violence it is going to be limited and contained fast. It however shall not represent the climate of the general election, in my opinion. The incident rates within the party nomination may be run by a few hired goons, but the general election on the other hand shall have more security and electoral discipline since the IEBC shall be conducting the exercise. 

However, I must commend the swift response of the Kenya Police today in a polling station in Kisumu where there were some levels of violence that resulted in the station being closed and a continent of nearby police responded to the distress. The situation was mitigated and the violence quelled before it caused much injury.  The preparedness of the security forces in many areas was quite adequate. The true success of this election shall however be proven by the end of the day when the final tally is done.

Making a calculated exit in Somalia 2.0

This is an updated version of the previous article containing some new inserts.

As the news seems to suggest that the last bastion for the Al-Shabaab insurgents has been occupied by Kenya Defense Forces ‘(KDF) and Somali TFG fighters, there is a sense that the worst of the fighting is now over and little pockets of resistance remain within Southern Somalia.

However, it is important to note that there are many measures that need to remain in place to ensure lasting security and peace within the Southern sector of Somalia. In a vast arid area, Southern Somalia is not an easy walk over, but represents an arena that has faced little if no development over the last two decades. There are high levels of disenfranchisement, massive levels of people remain displaced and the economic ruin is on a sporadic scale.

Once the KDF and largely AMISOM troops begin to leave Somalia there are sets of various challenges that remain within the area. With a weak central government that is learning to rein in power, coupled with the problem of pleasing the various clans, there are little prospects that the government can survive without some form of external intervention mechanism or assistance for the next few years. This technically means that the international community and the member states that are embroiled in the security operation within Somalia may remain there for the foreseeable future. Little exit strategy plans have been drafted by the United Nations Security Council or the African Union, and there seems to be no conclusive draw down plan for troop withdrawals.

Having such information made public may also render the security operation in jeopardy, since the insurgents other groups of ill repute may lie low and bay time to amass resources and await the foreign departure.  As witnessed in Afghanistan when the United States held a troop draw down in favor of amassing pressure on the Iraqi war, there was little thought left in trying to quell the elements of insurgents that were tucked away in the Afghan highlands, who later on emerged in a more coordinated and financed campaign. With Somalia, the history of how the Al Shabaab came to power only shows that strong institutions must be created and a strict security plan should be adhered to in order as to ensure that there is no threat of a reemergence of any extremist group.

The fragility of the Somali economy that has not received any major boost for the past twenty years means that the Somali government cannot effectively run or function its government without external assistance. Security remains paramount since there are still pockets of resistance that threaten to kill or attack government officials and other installations. These can represent a serious breach towards the development of institutional growth within Somalia.

Did the push by Kenyan troops into Somalia achieve the results and meet the expectations of the big wigs in Nairobi? So far the most significant aim was to ensure that Al Shabaab did not remain with any control of Kismayu (or the Southern Sector), thereby eliminating their financial and tactical base via the port city and their ability to mobilize an army or spread their ideology. As the KDF forces and AMISOM troops seek to stabilize all towns and ensure that Al Shabaab does not regroup, it does diminish the technical capabilities and limits the options available to the terror group. Their only option may be to continue the fighting through guerilla tactics, but this shall have a lesser impact as they had before.

Lessons can be drawn from various crises or wartime reconstruction efforts that are ongoing throughout the world. Somalia however represents a set of complex challenges due to the two decades of conflict it has been facing.

The most important tool that can ensure continued security and lasting peace within Somalia is by ensuring that there is a well trained and effective Somali National Army. By empowering the central government and the army with a well equipped and funded arsenal it can delimit the ability of other rag-tag groups from merging and threatening the Somali government again.

With President Kibaki’s term coming to an end and with a splendid job done in sending in troops to Somalia (a major policy move from a Kenyan president) the job may seem quite done for the administration and a well jotted legacy in the offing. However, the threat posed by any fast moved withdrawal may affect the future of the so far short lived period of calm and tilt the newfound status-quo in another spin off. Talk is also rife that Kenyan troops may also be sent into Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) to quell the violence and advancements of the M23. Is this going to be the beginning of over-reach for Kenya's military in light of the economic situation facing the nation? It is important to remember that the Ministry of Finance claimed that the KDF forces under AMISOM have not received any funds from the United Nations to finance the Somali war.

As to when countries should move their troops out of Somalia there needs to be a time line and a clear and stipulated exit strategy. A live and stimulated debate must remain vibrant from the rural homes of Somalia to the capitals of the EAC. A clear time span shall bog down the costs and also mitigate festered expectations. After all, AMISOM continues to try and assure Somali leaders that their troops are not there to occupy, but to assist. Any talk of prolonged stay by foreign troops may gain the insurgents traction in spreading negative propaganda. It was after all the good will of the Somali people that allowed the swift advancement of the AMISOM and TFG troops in territories then occupied by the Al Shabaab, with little opposition in the way, but rather astoundingly with open arms in many rural outlets.

Kismayu may remain liberated for now (par the small remnants of insurgent fighters causing minor havoc) but there needs to be an urgent push to jump start the economy of the town. It has been the gateway into Southern Somalia and has proved to be one of the few all weather ports within the Somali coastal towns. Its commercial viability to a war ravaged country is crucial towards providing jobs and activity to the locals. Under Al Shabaab rule it was estimated that they would collect up to $40 million per year, mainly through the illegal exportation of charcoal to the Middle East.

Problems shall emerge especially when it comes to picking who shall be the next leader of Kismayu port. The history of its leadership is very telling as to the significance of the town itself. Without a strong and capable leader the city may fall back into the hands of the insurgents. If other clans feel that they are not getting a slice of the cake then they shall collude with insurgents of Al Shabaab and try and seize the town. Somalia’s new president is still deliberating on who shall form his next government. The situation remains very complex to deal with.

KDF troops cannot wait for the Mogadishu based government to solve its delicate political acts in order as to form a functioning local administrative authority within Kismayu. Businesses have to begin transacting and the people need to be assured that the foreign troops are not there to stay. Revenues also need to be collected so as to begin the rebuilding process of Kismayu and Somalia.

Charcoal and other gods lying on the road without being exported or sold shall lead to increased local resentment, which can mean that the town can accumulate more sympathy towards the Al Shabaab insurgents, thereby exacerbating the delicate peace within the area.

Military strategists have ultimately achieved a great milestone in restoring and pacifying war torn Somalia. The strategy now shifts to that of restoration and reconciliation. These shall not be achieved through the barrel of the gun but through diplomacy and development. The onus of ensuring lasting peace falls squarely on the Somali government and its ability to address historical injustices. As the guns may grow more silent by the day, Somali’s history shows that a short lull may be pierced with a hail of grief. More action needs to be taken fast to ensure that the mistakes of the past are not repeated and that violence seems the only way to solve problems.

Making a calculated exit in Somalia

As the news seems to suggest that the last bastion for the Al-Shabaab insurgents has been occupied by Kenya Defense Forces ‘(KDF) and Somali TFG fighters, there is a sense that the worst of the fighting is now over and little pockets of resistance remain within Southern Somalia.

However, it is important to note that there are many measures that need to remain in place to ensure lasting security and peace within the Southern sector of Somalia. In a vast arid area, Southern Somalia is not an easy walk over, but represents an arena that has faced little if no development over the last two decades. There are high levels of disenfranchisement, massive levels of people remain displaced and the economic ruin is on a sporadic scale.

Once the KDF and largely AMISOM troops begin to leave Somalia there are sets of various challenges that remain within the area. With a weak central government that is learning to rein in power, coupled with the problem of pleasing the various clans, there are little prospects that the government can survive without some form of external intervention mechanism or assistance for the next few years. This technically means that the international community and the member states that are embroiled in the security operation within Somalia may remain there for the foreseeable future. Little exit strategy plans have been drafted by the United Nations Security Council or the African Union, and there seems to be no conclusive draw down plan for troop withdrawals.

Having such information made public may also render the security operation in jeopardy, since the insurgents other groups of ill repute may lie low and bay time to amass resources and await the foreign departure.  As witnessed in Afghanistan when the United States held a troop draw down in favor of amassing pressure on the Iraqi war, there was little thought left in trying to quell the elements of insurgents that were tucked away in the Afghan highlands, who later on emerged in a more coordinated and financed campaign. With Somalia, the history of how the Al Shabaab came to power only shows that strong institutions must be created and a strict security plan should be adhered to in order as to ensure that there is no threat of a reemergence of any extremist group.

The fragility of the Somali economy that has not received any major boost for the past twenty years means that the Somali government cannot effectively run or function its government without external assistance. Security remains paramount since there are still pockets of resistance that threaten to kill or attack government officials and other installations. These can represent a serious breach towards the development of institutional growth within Somalia.

Did the push by Kenyan troops into Somalia achieve the results and meet the expectations of the big wigs in Nairobi? So far the most significant aim was to ensure that Al Shabaab did not remain with any control of Kismayu (or the Southern Sector), thereby eliminating their financial and tactical base via the port city and their ability to mobilize an army or spread their ideology. As the KDF forces and AMISOM troops seek to stabilize all towns and ensure that Al Shabaab does not regroup, it does diminish the technical capabilities and limits the options available to the terror group. Their only option may be to continue the fighting through guerilla tactics, but this shall have a lesser impact as they had before.

Lessons can be drawn from various crises or wartime reconstruction efforts that are ongoing throughout the world. Somalia however represents a set of complex challenges due to the two decades of conflict it has been facing.

The most important tool that can ensure continued security and lasting peace within Somalia is by ensuring that there is a well trained and effective Somali National Army. By empowering the central government and the army with a well equipped and funded arsenal it can delimit the ability of other rag-tag groups from merging and threatening the Somali government again.

With President Kibaki’s term coming to an end and with a splendid job done in sending in troops to Somalia (a major policy move from a Kenyan president) the job may seem quite done for the administration and a well jotted legacy in the offing. However, the threat posed by any fast moved withdrawal may affect the future of the so far short lived period of calm and tilt the newfound status-quo in another spinoff.

As to when countries should move their troops out of Somalia there needs to be a timeline and a clear and stipulated exit strategy. A live and stimulated debate must remain vibrant from the rural homes of Somalia to the capitals of the EAC. A clear time span shall bog down the costs and also mitigate festered expectations. After all, AMISOM continues to try and assure Somali leaders that their troops are not there to occupy, but to assist. Any talk of prolonged stay by foreign troops may gain the insurgents traction in spreading negative propaganda. It was after all the good will of the Somali people that allowed the swift advancement of the AMISOM and TFG troops in territories then occupied by the Al Shabaab, with little opposition in the way, but rather astoundingly with open arms in many rural outlets.

Military strategists have ultimately achieved a great milestone in restoring and pacifying war torn Somalia. The strategy now shifts to that of restoration and reconciliation. These shall not be achieved through the barrel of the gun but through diplomacy and development. The onus of ensuring lasting peace falls squarely on the Somali government and its ability to address historical injustices. As the guns may grow more silent by the day, Somali’s history shows that a short lull may be pierced with a hail of grief. More action needs to be taken fast to ensure that the mistakes of the past are not repeated and that violence seems the only way to solve problems.