Political Tactics that can be Employed by Kenyan Politicians

Politics in Kenya remains to be a very vibrant scene, one that changes within the minute. Strategy and counter strategy has been the order of survival. Alliances are formed for ones survival.

As the ICC case draws closer, so too does the 2012 general elections that are bound to be contested. Politicians that fear being indicted have taken up various tactics to try to evade the ICC prosecutions or ultimately exonerate themselves so that their political image is not tarnished.

 Different players that believe that they are going to be indicted by the ICC may employ several strategies. It is hard for one to defend themselves when they do not know whether they are being prosecuted yet, so the full extent of their plans may not be revealed until they are certain that they are under the ICC radar.

Various politicians have already come out and stated that they oppose the process. However, one politician has strongly been on the forefront against the ICC process. William Ruto has consistently stated that he believes the process is flawed and that Moreno Ocampo and his team of investigators are out on a witch-hunting scheme.

To understand the strategy that Ruto is using one needs to understand the dynamics of the rift valley region to gain a basic insight into what inspires his set goals.

Since the end of the Moi regime, the Kalenjin community had no leading politician that they considered their kingpin. When Ruto came to the forefront during the 2005 referendum vocally rejecting for the first time the proposed constitution, the people recognized that they had a key player in the offing, upping his support within the region.

In 2007 when the ODM team formed the famous “Pentagon” team that had various leaders representing different regions of the country, Ruto represented the Kalenjin community and the Rift Valley area. This year however, he went against his party position of supporting the new constitution and decided to begin his stance as an opposition supporter.

As Ruto continues to heavily criticize the ICC process and that of the Prime Minister, he gains consolidates his power base within the Rift Valley due to the group grievances against the current administration from various issues that they feel have not been addresses. However, some people do support these assertions out of being tribalistic and due to their parochial mentalities. Some also do not get the jist of the process and are easily mislead into supporting a cause they do not understand.

A key strategy that is believed to be in Ruto’s cards is that of using the community as a buffer in preventing him from being prosecuted. The mere threat or indication that there shall be violence from a certain community because they feel they are being “victimized” by the process is key to showing the ICC that they shall only reverse the status-quo, therefore threatening the purpose the ICC is trying to achieve; ending the culture of impunity and ensuring that future violence does not reoccur.

Media reports and the ICC itself have not indicated that the two principles, Messrs Kibaki and Raila, shall be indicted to face charges in The Hague. General debate suggests that they are the key pillars to a semblance of peace within Kenya and their leadership is needed to sustain that.

 Recently, a group of seventeen MPs mainly drawn from the rift valley and central regions held a press conference claiming to the extent that the country “shall be sent to the dogs” if the Prime Minister is not arrested by the ICC. Such utterances are a means to creating tension that would send chills to the international community, various regional factions, politicians and especially the government.

The same MPs were a group known to be sympathizers of William Ruto, with some also known to be key allies of Uhuru Kenyatta, though the deputy PM has largely remained on the sidelines awaiting the release of the names. It is however clear that key allies of the two individuals are closely cooperating, thereby setting the stage for a possible joint collaboration between the two leaders within the near future.

Future negative assertions by MPs towards the ICC process shall endure for a long time to be highlighted in the media. Once the indicted individuals are known, the stakes shall only be raised. It is expected that a grand strategy between all the individuals shall then be formulated so that they can maintain their political face and minimalize their political risk.

Tapping into issues that exude nationalistic emotions are bound to be part of the strategy that shall be employed by various politicians in parliament and in the national arena. Analyzing the debate as to why the United States refused to be a signatory to the Rome Statute only serves as a pointed as to how opponents shall formulate a basis not only to discredit the process, but to incite law makers to force the government, through legislature, to not cooperate with the ICC.

National Sovereignty remains an issue that is dear to most Kenyans. Past events such as the Migingo island scandal only served to show that Kenyans are very conscious about interference from other state and even international non-state actors. When the court is not viewed as counter-productive or neo-colonialist, many people simply view it as merely ineffective, since their conviction rate is still low and the number of indicted individuals under arrest remains at around 30 per cent.

A perceived slow pace in prosecuting individuals has continuously dogged the ICC. Various trials continue to drag over a number of years until the victims get justice. Back in Kenya, no single suspect has been arrested and prosecuted for their involvement in the violence. Though the ICC process is seen to be the closest process in seeking redress for victims, it shall take time to achieve that goal. Incitement can be used to question the duration by which the ICC is dragging a case, with some politicians indicating that it is politically motivated that the trials may drag till 2013. This, they claim, will not allow them to run for office in 2012.

Under the new constitution, it restricts individuals facing criminal charges from facing trial. Suspects that seek higher office or to retain their current positions will claim to their electorate and the nation at large that they are being “frustrated” by the ICC and the government so that they can gain sympathy from the electorate.

However, the question remains as to what these individuals shall do once they are not eligible to vie for office until 2017, technically. They shall be the biggest threat to the process itself depending on how they handle their case. Come 2012 it is widely expected that through cooperation the indicted individuals would team up and fight the current administration and also seek sympathy for their plight from the voters through combined traditional loyalties. They may choose to support a certain candidate and gain certain plump jobs within the next administration, such as senior jobs in parastatals, cabinet positions (though this would be done skillfully through parliament lobbying) and other positions that may allow them to remain in influential positions through pre-negotiated deals.

It is expected that these individuals shall all cooperate with the ICC to avoid being issues with arrest warrants by the pre-trial chamber. Ocampo claimed that bail should be granted to the individuals should they present themselves to the chamber. Nonetheless, they are not guaranteed that the judges shall not convert indictment into a warrant of arrest.

Cooperating with the ICC shall allow these individuals to leave The Hague and continue their duties within the country. The stock of cabinet ministers included in the list will have to resign. Since media exposure shall be glanced on them after the issuing of the indictments, they shall soak up all the limelight they can to consolidate their power bases, reach out to their regional support groups for more influence, and strike deals for 2012 politics. By allowing the suspects to move about in Kenya, the limelight shall turn to the 2012 general election.

On the other hand, a refusal to cooperate with the ICC, though unlikely but still plausible, would be a bold statement to the court and its process as indicated by the suspects behavior. Some tribesmen would consider the move to be one befitted to a warrior, fighting against a bull, whilst at the same time playing the same old card that the court is “targeting the community.” This may further embolden ones community to support you and act as the buffer against arrest, due to a perceived fear that civil unrest will break out.

Omar Al Bashir’s indictment proved that regional bodies such as the African Union can be used to rubber stamp a states take against an ICC arrest warrant. Several key allies of those opposing the process may seek to form a new position with the AU in order as to gain consolation from other African countries. A round of intense lobbying shall ensue within the AU, though it is unlikely that such a deal may be struck for most of the suspects and because the government may not initiate a formal resolution within the AU itself. In the case of Bashir, there was an argument that the indictment leads to him being viewed as a national hero with critics commenting that instead of the ICC ending the culture of impunity; it forces offending leaders to cling to power.

Many a time have the politicians paid individuals, mostly the youth, to demonstrate and make some noise over an issue or calamity they are facing. Only last week was it witnessed when the Makadara MP Mike ‘Sonko’ Mbuvi was remanded at the Kileleshwa police station. Paid youth were hired to cause mayhem outside the Kibera law courts with some being ferried to the destination. This was all in an attempt to show that the MP is widely supported, especially by the youth. The mentality that demonstrating as loud as possible persists within our environment. It is inevitable that Kenyan politicians shall use this same strategy more than any other employed thus far.

Indicted suspects shall use the same trick to get support from various parts of the country in order as to show that they have large support from the community and country at large despite the verdict. It will also be the first of a long journey to seeking a wider support base countrywide.

Many MPs have claimed that the Prime Minister is behind the ICC process of indicting officials. Technically, this is a method used by some opponents to discredit both the ICC and make Raila the scapegoat of all their problems. Their desire would be to kill two birds with one stone, believing that the ICC process can be the ultimate blow to the coalition government. 

Since party politics does play and shall continue to play an important role in both the ICC and 2012 politics, strong party positions shall begin to be formed in regards to the ICC. The blame game that ensued only recently over who is most responsible shall play out from both parties, though it would be said that both principles may not allow an open escalation to be witnessed, though internal wrangling shall continue to jeopardize any solid and practical party positions from being made regarding the ICC.

Parliament shall remain an area where the fight over trying to discredit the ICC shall continue. Efforts to remove Kenya as a signatory, and even new attempts to set up a local tribunal system shall all be surfaced within parliament, though the time for implementing all these has long gone and it is unlikely to gain the two-thirds threshold it needs to implement it into law.

By coercing the ICC via threats and intimidation if they are indicted, suspects shall question the rational of justice over peace. The same argument that undermines the ICC internationally shall be used again, that the ICC is opening up old wounds that have been sealed, leading to the possible renewal of violence due to the sensitivity of the cases.

Questioning the evidence that has been produced to Ocampo’s investigative team has been the talk of town. The Attorney General warned that what the prosecutor currently has might not be sufficient to grant him a case against the suspects. It is with these sentiments that the Kenyan public can begin doubting the fairness of the process, which would reverse all the gains the ICC has done in trying to create the impression that they are only serving to administer justice to the Kenyan people over the 2008 violence.

Kenya’s case to the ICC differs from all previous ones. It is the first time that ICC judges have authorized the opening of a formal investigation on a recommendation from the prosecutor. Previously, ICC prosecutions have resulted from the government referring cases in their countries or, in the case of Sudan, from a UN Security Council directive. 

Jean Ping, the president of the AU Commission, accused the ICC of being hypocritical, saying that “…we are not against the ICC, but there are two systems of measurements…the ICC seems to exist solely for judging Africans.”

Generally, analyzing the political tactics that may be used by Kenyan politicians at this stage is like formulating a Rational Actor Model style of decision making; weighing all ones options and picking the right one. What one can practically estimate is that there is a looming political showdown imminent within less than two weeks. 

Implications on governmental and social-economic stability as a consequence of the Government failure to send the suspects to the Hague

The government of Kenya is under a load of pressure, both from its citizens and the international community to end the culture of impunity and also to prosecute and bring to justice the perpetrators of the Post Election Violence (PEV).

As the International Criminal Court begins to indict six prominent individuals who are believed to hold the most responsibility over the violence, there are doubts as to the complacency of the government, especially the two principals, Messrs Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga, in handing over the indicted officials to the court to face prosecution in the likely event they do not hand themselves willingly to the court.

It is believed that the six individuals who hold the most responsibility come from both the Party of National Unity (PNU) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), and are  all very close officials to the two principals. It is speculated that the two bigwigs may not want their key lieutenants to be prosecuted.

A raft of issues does come up if the perpetrators do not go to the Hague. These issues do border on both domestic and international ramifications for the failure of the government to honor the Rome Statute that it has signed. It shall also violate the Agenda 4 reforms process and the National Accord, whereby perpetrators of the violence must be tried and justice must prevail.

International Impacts

The Chair of Eminent Persons lead by the Former Secretary General Koffi Annan came into Kenya at the height of the PEV to seek an amicable solution to ending the violence and getting both principals to sign a deal. Koffi Annan was designated by the international community to oversee an end to the violence.

A failure by the government tot honor their agreement with the team lead by Koffi Annan would resort to international condemnation and a clear violation of our international agreements. This shall risk endangering our relationships with various states and jeopardize our reputation with various governments.

Focus by the international community has remained on Africa as a whole since they have the largest case logs within the ICC. Omar Al Bashir also continues to be the most evasive individual so far that has been indicted by the ICC. Noting that Bashir is a neighboring country there shall be a regional focus on our failure to prosecute individuals responsible for various atrocities.

The United Nations Security Council is mandate to take action against states that fail to honor its agreements and violates its mandate. There is a likely chance that there shall be significant pressure coming from the Security Council to force the Kenyan government to comply with the ICC via the use of economic sanctions targeted at the state.

The likelihood however of the Security Council imposing direct state sanctions may be debatable due to the sensitivity of endangering the people who need these funds and the economic work force. It is easy for a state to directly get affected by sanctions and place the buck on its citizens who suffer because of state failure. As a result, states shall seek to impose direct sanctions on the leaders it feels are most responsible, especially those indicted, including the senior officials that refuse to cooperate with the ICC. Action that can be taken against individuals can be in the form of direct sanctions such as the freezing of bank assets, travel restrictions extended even to family members, amongst others.

Recently, the Department for International Development (DfID), a sub-branch of the Commonwealth and Foreign Office in the British governments, suspended all funding to the Ministry of Education over its graft allegations. States such as the US decided not to follow suit simply because it channels its resources through other bodies directed to the schools without necessarily giving the ministry money, eliminating doubts of corruption. It is this same principle that may begin to occur from various other governments.

International organizations have set up base within Kenya as their regional headquarters. Companies such as the Tata Group, Virgin Atlantic, General Electrics, Microsoft, Google, etc. have ventured into our market as a result of our economic growth potential and perceived stability in a region void of problems. If we return to violence then we place in critical condition our future investor friendly environment. Existing companies shall decide to pull out of our country because of the turmoil and uncertainty that is detrimental to them.

In international diplomatic circles we shall cease being strong and cooperative especially with the West. We place in danger our relationship with strong and friendly states that share strong ties. The image we shall exude is one of repression and a slip in democracy, proving critics right that democracy is in danger in Africa.

Domestic Impacts

Once a great injustice has been committed, it is only human nature for one to seek redress so that the injustice cannot happen again and the instigator can be justly punished. That also applies to the scenario of the Kenyan violence. The individuals who bore the brunt of mayhem and tribal attacks do seek redress form the fact that The Hague shall prosecute those it feels are dully responsible.

Under the Kibaki administration there has been an increased strategy aimed at increasing the countries economy. The idea based on the Vision 2030 master plan to elevate the country into a middle-income one.

In the likely event that there are economic sanctions, withdrawal of donor assistance, loss in the investors, and even sludge in trade, there is a raft of issues that shall follow that will affect millions of Kenyans reliant upon the current market.

Last year the Foreign Policy Magazine released its Failed States Index, indicating that Kenya is the 13^th most failed state in the world. A failure by the state to prosecute indicted individuals shall result in questions being raised over the level of graft and impunity within the country. This shall further raise our level and degrade the gains the state has made over the years. Market volatility shall ensue if there is a loss in confidence.

Standards & Poor (S&P) recently upgraded Kenya to a level B+ rating. This further added confidence towards our market and allows the government to meet its infrastructural financing with cheaper options available in borrowing money. Any turmoil that may arise because of violence, tension or impunity shall force such credit rating companies to downgrade the state and reduce the confidence that was being built.

Any outbreak of violence within the country will immediately bring back the dire consequences that were sparked off as a result of the 2008 violence. What we shall see is an increase in commodity prices at a time when the consumer is meant to be spending the most, leading to a loss for businesses and as a result layoffs shall be necessary for businesses to maintain at least some break-even margin in the first quarter of the next financial year.

Commodity prices shall skyrocket, resulting in increased poverty and a larger percentage of the population being more vulnerable to malnutrition. This loss of significant gains shall lead us to not being able to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. In addition, our accessibility to basic goods and services, education, health and other critical issues that affect our daily interactions shall be placed in jeopardy.

Horticulture has been one of our largest contributors to our Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A large bulk of the export tends to go to the European Union.

Vision 2030 requires a huge amount of financing so that we can be able to meet our infrastructural agenda. Kenya must spend heavily in order for a large percentage of the population to receive the gains of being a middle-income state. As political turmoil does affect our markets, this all boils down to our short and long term bond market stability and price volatility. Uncertainty over our political climate shall result in a decline in the Kenyan bond assets held by investors as they try to dump them before any further violence breaks out that shall place us in any jeopardy. The “herd mentality” shall result in a rally against the Kenyan bonds and shall result in the government being unable to access money at a cheaper rate, resulting in the taxpayer paying more for developmental projects.

The above shall result in the government drifting away from their economic agenda. Kenya shall therefore be at jeopardy of becoming an increasingly corrupt and failed state, risking jeopardizing the reform agenda and constitutional implementation process due to political intrigues.

Income per capita gains shall drastically fall if there is any escalation of violence. Political bickering and instability shall also serve to act as a catalyst towards increased poverty and insecurity.

The loss of confidence within the state institutions will only deteriorate services the citizens and the business community rely upon for growth.

Effects to the Coalition government

Legitimacy towards the Grand Coalition government remained exceptionally low even since the brokering of the National Accord. The international community believed that the coalition was bound to collapse due to in bickering between the two main parties, PNU and ODM.

State failure shall dominate all discussions if there is a lack of cooperation from the government. Questions shall begin to remain abound regarding the capability and the commitment of the government to fulfill what they had promised to the electorate.

Parliament shall dominate the main fighting between both parties, since they do not share the same variances of party loyalty and have been continuously dogged with bickering. Members of Parliament may remain adamant on their party lines, with some switching allegiances due to a fallout within their houses.

Since the introduction of the new standing orders and the constitutional changes that have introduced a James Madison system of checks and balances, Parliament has asserted its independent role within our national politics. However, whipping of support has remained low and in need of dire intervention from both principals. The continues ignorance by some MPs to heed to their parties policies and directives has resulted in a backlash that affects the government business and introduction of key legislature. Any further tension or strain, especially regarding the ICC shall ultimately send the MPs in a flurry for their own political safety and strategically placing themselves for 2012.

With the loss of key votes needed by the government within parliament to pass significant bills within the house, it will ultimately mean that there shall be a paralysis within the government. Another scenario would be one of limited goals and agendas being achieved.

With the likelihood that external intervention may be needed to nudge the government to comply there is bound to be a reflection of negative growth within the government and their commitment to alleviating the situation within Kenya. As a regional hub and an economic powerhouse, international organizations and donor states shall change their perception of the Kenyan government.

Partisan intervention is the most likely took that is going to be employed by the international community so that intervention can empower one group, at the expense of another (that being the key perpetrators and senior government officials, including the principals).

Economic growth has long been primed as one of the key pillar stones that the Kibaki administration wants to be recognized for achieving. Nevertheless, the ICC indictment and the subsequent failure of the government to cooperate effectively with it would lead to negative effects towards the government. Significant reverberating effects shall be felt and there is bound to be a negative backlash.

Kibaki’s legacy and that of his administration, including the reputation of the Prime Minister, are going to be sharply criticized for years. There is also bound to be negative effects that shall tarnish the government’s reputation. The likelihood of many politicians coming back to power after such a calamity would be unlikely unless they openly push for cooperation with the ICC and seek justice, only due to the fallout effects. 

Agenda 4 remained one of the key objectives to be completed by the Koffi Annan lead mediation team. If the ICC does not go through then there is bound to be a loss of significant gains in the reform agenda for the government. Only by allowing the ICC can the government fully be given the green light as being one that is stable and having achieved a mass number of gains.