Dichotomy of Foreign Policy or expanding options: An analysis of the Jubilee FP approach

            After half a year under the Jubilee government there is a formation of a clearer foreign policy that can ultimately be tagged the UhuRuto doctrine; a modal shift in ideals and practice from the previous coalition government or even the NARC government’s strategy. It is more ambitious in nature, extremely hands on and has a larger scope and mandate than any we have seen in recent Kenyan history.

            Ever since the President took office he has undertaken a foreign trip at the rate of a weekly visit per month. The charming nature of the head of state has been his strongest asset in easily securing new bonds and friendships with various other heads of states globally. His new itinerary has jet set him into three continents, a fete that was not even achieved under former President Kibaki’s administration within such a small time span.

            Debate has arisen as to the consequences of the modal shift in foreign policy, espoused as more Eastern oriented and “snobbish” to the West. Under the previous administration there was a perceived sense that the government was friendly to all governments (even under increased Chinese investments and a visit by Presidents Hu Jintao and Mahmoud Ahmedinejad), and a multitude of visits by senior Obama administration officials (a visit by US Vice Pres. Joe Biden and two by former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton). Currently, there have been limited visits by Western leaders and a photo op with the British PM was turned down when the President went to the London conference on Somalia. Obama’s perceived snub of Kenya was seen as a sting by the Kenyan people.

            In light of the new vote by the UN Security Council, there was a raft of strong reactions emerging from Kenyan leaders, especially from the Deputy President who mentioned that they now know who their true friends are. Such sentiments I believe in the field of foreign policy should be made with caution. I believe that every state should vote according to their own conscious, noting that it is their sovereign right to do so accordingly. Moving forward there must be increased dialogue with all players. Even the British government dispatched its deputy National Security Advisor to the cabinet last week to explain Her Majesty’s government’s position in light of the UNSC vote, and how they shall push for video trials in the cases to avoid the leaders not being present.

            Kenya’s Foreign Affairs ministry has managed to lobby various states throughout Africa and the world at large into supporting its cause. The push is commendable, proving beyond a doubt that the country can amass a large continental support base. When analyzing Kenya’s new foreign policy shift and the massive efforts we are undertaking globally, it is important to note that various states also do have an opinion of how we are undertaking these challenges relating to the ICC. I still believe that state-centralism is largely sporadic, with each international player acting according to how they believe they shall gain an added advantage and remain relevant in the international sphere, whilst balancing this out with the perception in built by the countries citizens, after all a key shaper of foreign policy is based upon the opinions and perceptions of the countries citizens.

            The country’s relation with the West must remain one built on mutual cooperation and trust. In light of the Westgate attacks there was vast international condemnation. Most of all it was the West that sent its forensic experts to aid in the effort of the anthropological analysis. For over a decade the country has sought assistance from the West on security, educational and health related matters. These sectors still demand strong investments from these quarters. It is therefore unlikely that the government shall sever relations anytime soon with the West over the ICC cases.

Pentagon officials recently disclosed an upsurge in their cooperation and expansion efforts in assisting the Kenyan army and security forces, especially at the Manda Bay airstrip (this will be done also at the US base in Djibouti). This is part of the push to secure the greater Horn of Africa region against terrorism and piracy. Off the Kenyan coast there is the NATO based operation ATALANTA, which consists of NATO ships used to counter pirate attacks and escort ships in international waters. Also recently a US based energy firm came on board into pumping funds to power up the 100MW wind turbine plant in Kajiado under the Power Africa initiative launched by President Obama during his recent trip to Tanzania. The National Treasury is also about to debut its largest ever Eurobond next year, with the lead consultant being JP Morgan. Such efforts prove that there is a lasting and strong relationship between Kenya and other development partners such as the US and other Western peers.

            Much hype has been created on social media on the government shifting its focus more towards the East and sidelining the West. These are detrimental sentiments that add no value to the prestige, international appeal or broader image of the country. Yes, the country must forge new ties throughout the world; but we must also have the ability to remain cordial with old friends even in times of strain. The country has coexisted in a neighborhood filled with conflict over many years yet we have remained cordial with them all. We must now do the same in times of a difference of opinion that involves us directly.

Recent parliamentary debate by some Kenyan MP’s have been negatively obstinate towards the British government, especially after the deputy National Security Advisor to the cabinet was in the country immediately after the UNSC vote and presented the government with an offer from the British government in pushing for a video trial at the Hague, which has been taken negatively as a counter proposal towards their push for immunity for the President and his deputy. The speaker has decided to allow the house to debate the UK and its foreign relations with Kenya.

            Great exception must be paid towards Kenya’s relationship with any state. If we immediately decide to castigate the British government over a difference in opinion then how likely will we be to do the same to other countries throughout the world, especially those that are smaller than ours? Will a mere difference of opinion attract the wrath of Kenyan MP’s or the stern warnings of our Foreign Ministry? Should we not be using diplomatic undertones rather than overt rhetoric to solve our differences?

            Chest thumping may be well and good (and quite justly the defining nature of the 10^th parliament), but it is also detrimental towards the development of the country’s foreign relations if we take hard positions and refuse to compromise with all players or offer voices of reason. It is noteworthy that even before the UNSC vote it was conclusive that the resolution would not pass, so there was no surprise there. The un-moderated caucuses that were held in the day’s privy to the vote would have indicated that many states would abstain, and significantly enough there was no out right refusal. If parliament wants to debate the conduct of the British government over the UNSC decision, then it must do the same to the other eight countries that abstained alongside the UK, otherwise the argument would prove to be baseless.

Will there be a change in the relations with the West with all these new and ongoing developments? I seemingly doubt. Our development partners remain strong friends in many of our development needs, having “provided Ksh. 212 billion to education, healthcare, infrastructure, agriculture and natural resources, economic growth and wealth creation, human rights, women’s advancement, and governance” (Daily Nation, p.13, 11/20/13).

Top 10 Export Destination
		US Dollars (Million)	% of total exports
1	Uganda	67,450	13
2	Tanzania	46,036	8.9
3	UK	40,630	7.8
4	Netherlands	31,056	6
5	UAE	28,608	5.5
6	USA	26,405	5.1
7	Pakistan	23,889	4.6
8	Egypt	21,464	4.1
9	Rwanda	16,151	3.1
10	Germany	9,771	1.9
	Total	517,847	60.1

Source: KNBS, Economic Survey 2013

Noting the chart above, many of our development partners have remained the same for a number of years. Our export based market has been largely built on coffee, tea, horticulture and manufactured goods that are shipped out to these countries. Our relationship based on our economic stability and growth is founded on the principle of ensuring that there is an appetite for our produce in these countries. The UK alone accounts for our largest foreign investor and highest number of tourists visiting the country each year. Significantly enough, Pakistan, USA and the UK all abstained during the UNSC vote, and they represent nearly 20 percent of our total exports for 2012, with strong indications showing that the growth is expected to climb when accounting for 2013 begins.

Going East is based on the premise that our development gap can be financed through various actors across South East Asia, China, Japan and South Korea. The assumption is not flawed, based on the impetus in funds that the government has gained from the region over the past six months. However, there are also opportunities to increase the countries investment in businesses that demand high skill and significantly more advancements than what is offered in Asia. This includes the technological sphere mostly, where the country is making unprecedented growth vis-à-vis its African counterparts. Blue chip firms and large multinational corporations have set up base in Kenya, including IBM, Google, and GE amongst others. This is a representation of their confidence in the country. Strong measures should be undertaken to ensure that we maintain this reputation and continue attracting not only Western firms, but also large conglomerates from Asia and South America.

Rhetoric may continue to gain traction amongst the President’s supporters, but there shall largely remain little change with Western countries. Our foreign policy shall continue to seek newer development partners especially from the BRIC nations and other newer emerging markets. However, old partners shall continue to add great impetus in our development needs and investments, even though the backdrop of the global financial crisis continues to act as a dogma that a financial crunch still exists, yet private enterprises have more cash reserves than ever before. Various alternatives can reduce the need to pay higher interest rates in future, so it is crucial that we leave a larger base of options for the future in order as to ensure the country has a higher bargaining power.