As Kenya continues to mature as a stronger democracy with an increasingly vibrant institutional system overhaul and an introduction of clearly stipulated and set legal systems that encourages the seeds of democracy to flourish, it has lead to a perennial shift over the years over Kenya’s regional and global role.
Under the Kibaki administration, the Kenyan government has realised a tumultuous host of friendly relations between both multilateral and bilateral partners, regardless of cultural partners and new strategical approaches in relation to foreign and economic policy implementation.
Before the end of the former President Moi’s KANU administration, there was a raft of calls from all quarters that institutional change, especially in relations to the deliverance of increased foreign direct investment (fdi), increased trade and economic activity, bilateral and multilateral agreements, and other regional integration projects all seemed to come to a halt or ceased to properly mature. Some form of aid and investment did trickle in, but far less than what was being pumped into the countries neighbours Kenya due to an outcry by key international partners in seeking stronger means of curbing oppression and corruption under the Moi administration.
According to the Foreign Policy Magazine yearly index on the most failed states in the world, Kenya is located in a region that has the highest density of the most failed states globally. Neighbouring countries such as Somalia and Sudan rank first and second respectively. Kenya follows closely behind, being positioned at a meagre 13th place, a far cry from its hay day of 37th place only five years ago.
The index is calculated using a tally of various factors that range from economic decline, internally displaced persons/ refugees, police brutality, public service delivery, equitable distribution of resources, corruption and a raft of other issues that ultimately tally up to get a total score and mark it according to a ranking system with the highest score being number 1; Somalia.
During the promulgation of Kenya’s new constitution there was international condemnation and uproar when Kenya hosted the Sudanese president, Omar El Bashir, yet she is a signatory to the Rome statute, and under international law she is required to arrest Bashir and hand him over for prosecution to the International Criminal Court. However, in her defence, the government claimed that under the African Union (AU) resolution passed recently in the Ugandan heads of state summit, African countries have been asked not to comply with this doctrine.
Some questions have been raised as to the morality and image cast against the backdrop of an impending indictment of some senior Kenyan officials by the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the willingness of the Kenyan government to see the process is dully carried out after a gross and systematic abuse of human rights was carried out during the 2007 post-election violence. Furthermore, the ICC sent over a senior representative who managed to seek approval from the government over the proposed setting up of a tribunal in Kenya. So the question is, why did we not comply with Bashir yet we turn a check and sign this a week after?
Regional interests for any country take great precedence over most issues pertaining to international relations due to the fear that ones neighbour can exert or ignite by their proximity to you. Yes, we do live in an increasingly globalized world that is a global village, but it is your neighbour that is most likely to be your biggest “asset or liability”.
Sudan faces a raft of problems that range from the troubled hot-spots from the Darfur region to the simmering tensions between the North and Southern Sudanese regions over an impending referendum that would allow the South to secede from the North and become Africa’s newest state. Kenya has a mandate, both as the main mediator of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (COPA) and as a friendly neighbour that wants to avoid all forms of future turmoil and bloodshed so as to foster economic growth and prosperity, the maintenance of civil rule and the deflated pressure of an impending disaster in one’s back yard. After the tensions over the post-electoral violence it is only fair for the Kenyan foreign ministry to avert a crisis and bring both players to comply fully with the COPA agreements that the two main opposing sides signed in Nairobi a few years ago.
It would be naive to ignore that gross and systematic human rights have been carried out in not only the Sudan, but also neighbouring countries such as Somalia and the Democratic Republic of Conga (DRC). Whilst we try to forestall problems diplomatically we must also be able to exert regional pressure and influence in other more powerful and influential ways (i.e. soft and hard power), be it economic or materialistic pressure that can and would change the situation.
Another case point can be the treacherous region of Somalia after witnessing two decades of civil war and a mass exodus of migration from the region, with an estimated internally displaced population sizing up to 1.5 million and 450,000 refugees in neighbouring countries, with an increasingly changing demographics with every intense battle that affects many more lives. Somalia is incomparable to Afghanistan, it is much worse, since the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) is working inadequately, and the country is held together by AMISOM (African Union Mission to Somalia) armed with 6000 men mostly from Uganda and Burundi.
Terrorism has been a catalyst for foreign states such as the United States, the United Kingdom, NATO and other allies in galvanizing support for both covert and overt measures to be carried our throughout the globe. During the final game of the world cup match in Kampala, Uganda, a bomb went off that killed and injured several people. These acts of terrorism are some of the atrocious and instigated violence that have been credited to militant groups such as Al-Shaabab. This threat is both an economic and political affront to any member states within the East African community and Africa at large.
Our only greatest fear should be laxity to see that the issues that affect our neighbours shall not bear any brunt on us. We should not for one second forget that we host one of the largest refugee camps in the world, Daadab to the North East, whilst another exists in the North Western regions of Kenya, where cattle rustling and arms proliferation do threaten our basic security. Increased instability within the affected areas will only mean increased migration towards our borders, chocking up resources and increasing the chances of a break out of mass malnutrition and exposure to diseases.
National interests and security do supersede all forms of policy decisions that any state can make in regards to how they tackle their foreign policy. It is clear and rational that Kenya should begin changing how it deals with its neighbours since there is a growing concern that there is a general deterioration that can ultimately lead to a boil over effect into the region, affecting its strength along political, economic and social lines. Radical groups such as the Taliban grew because they we largely ignored. We should not make the same mistake with our regional threats and regret later.
Friday, February 18, 2011
The Fight against Terrorism and Kenya’s National Interest; the Conundrum that is Somalia and Yemen
Talking about terrorism and security within a regional scope can shift ones mind to perennial sets of crises that continue to dog states within the Horn of Africa and the Middle East region, with a smaller scope of interest on the tiny cattle rustling and fight for cross-border resources amongst neighboring states.
In light of increased threats that terrorists have made this year alone measured by the intensity of their attacks and increased access to arms and domestic growth by mostly groups such as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and al-Shabab (AQAP), both mainly based in Yemen and Somalia respectfully, there is a need for states to evaluate their national security strategy and how they can also best address the increasing challenges that these radical groups pose to regional and international economic, social and developmental growth.
Kenya is no exception to the atrocity and malevolence of radicalism that kills and maims people of all ages, races and religions, without any regret for the actions they take in destroying lives, long established social and cultural ties and damage to property.
Prior to the perilous day of August 8th 1998, Kenya never imagined that terrorism would be a reality to an emerging country that held little ideological confrontations with the al-Qaeda wings. After the terrible blow that was infused under the orders of Osama Bin Laden, our geo-political and national security priorities have all but changed both regionally and internationally.
Somalia remains a key focal point whenever we discuss the emanation of any terror direct threat towards Kenya. State collapse is already too evident and forms the key backdrop to a not so insurmountable regional security conundrum. Insurgent groups such as al-Shabab, a known al-Qaeda sympathizer, continue to cause wanton destruction of lives and property, further weakening the position of the fragile Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) due to their un-acquiescent attitude towards their ideologies and imposition of laws quite similar to those espoused by the former Taliban régime in Afghanistan.
Terrorism and insurgency generally tends to be greatest in states that are both weak and poor. From the foothills of the Afghanistan and Pakistan border (Af-Pak) region to the growing threat of a resurging al-Qaeda in Yemen which is only 200 miles away from Somalia across the piracy-prone waters of the Gulf of Aden.
Security experts view the connection between Somalia and Yemen as one of increasing aggregation. There are existing unregulated businesses that operate from both the countries only divided by the pirate infested waters. It is believed that there is increased arms trade, migration of people and sale of fuel between both states. Strategic importance has to be given to the increasing state fragility in Yemen and the direct correlation it has with the already vulnerable Somalia. Arms smuggling from Yemen into Somalia has been well documented in recent years, with significant drops in shipments recorded once the Sana’a government clamps on key arms dealers and border control in heightened.
In a recent article written by Ginny Hill and Sally Healy for Catham House, they said that “Yemen and Somalia face parallel challenges: weak or ineffective governments grappling with localized insurgencies, resurgent terrorist groups with links to Al Qaeda, and severe economic difficulties.” Due to the lack of control and security deployment capabilities of both fighting and limiting the spread of insurgency, they have proved to be a great threat to both regional and international security.
Only recently two mail bombs emanating from Yemen addressed to synagogues in Chicago were found on board some cargo planes, with another threat reaching as far as the German Chancellor’s office. These threats were said to have originated from the same bomb maker as the Christmas Day failed underwear bomb orchestrated by Nigerian born Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab. Unconfirmed documentation indicated that some known leaders of AQAP had moved from Yemen into Somalia, thereby heightening the security concern.
Tactical analysis is also one of the ways to gauge the extent of progression that both groups have made in terms of arming and grouping. al-Shabab has proved to be more of a direct threat internally to the people of Somalia, with relatively new tactics of regional bombings, with the July bombings in Uganda being their first attempt out of Uganda. They have also gained the experience of how to use Improvised Explosive Devises (IED’s) similar to those used in Iraq and Afghanistan, thereby giving it an international connection. On the other hand, AQAP has not yet used IED’s, but has proved dangerous, especially after their attempt in trying to assassinate a Saudi prince and their call to eliminate the royal family. Recent news indicating that bombs have been originating from Yemen destined for Western states has also been discomforting.
Since the 1998 terrorist attacks and that later on in Mombasa, the state security apparatus gave increased impetus to averting future attacks and also shielding the nation from any aspects in relation to terrorism. Especially after the June twin bombings in Kampala, the reality of the fight against terrorism was more evident with the “illegal” rendition of Kenyans to face criminal trial in relation to the bombings, with al-Shabab claiming responsibility. Intelligence briefings indicate that Osama Bin Laden had relayed instructions to the U.S. embassy bombers in Nairobi via a Yemeni intermediary, only proving how Yemen does play a role in perpetuating terrorism regionally.
Reports indicate that Al-Shabab has grown further into the East African region and developed new cell networks. Investigations have also stated that the bombs that exploded in Uganda were assembled and transported from Kenya, with a claim that there were similar attacks meant for Kenya.
The effects of terrorism are all but real to Kenyan’s, especially the tourism sector that contributes a large chunk of the GDP. After both terrorist attacks there was a slump in the inbound numbers of tourists especially from Western nations that make up a large percentage of the frequent clientele.
We may downplay the threats that are posed due to porous borders, mass immigration and the threat of small arms proliferation. In early October, a German national was arrested by Kenyan police after reports filtered in that he was destined to Somalia on a suicide bombing mission. It is this rise in the number of people that have come into the country destined for Somalia as “jihads” that is a threat also to the Kenyan community and their states of origin.
Most of all, and the significant focal point, is the danger posed to the people of Kenya and the East African region (including foreigners). Roughly 70 people were killed in Kampala during the July bombings, 200 killed in the 1998 Kenyan bombings and 11 Tanzanians were killed in Dar es Salaam. Sadly, this is nothing as compared to the loss of life that is witnessed within Somalia itself. Terrorism is more of a threat within the source of origin that it is anywhere else.
With that in mind, Kenya has a role to play not only exerting hard power, but also enforcing soft power to its neighbors. Playing host to one of the largest refugee camps in the world and also having one of the largest Somali diaspora groups, there is need for increased cooperation and outreach to these groups if the situation in Somalia is to change. A bottom up approach will be the best solution for the citizens of Somalia to know how best they can sort out their internal conflict in an amicable manner.
Over many years the cold war style policy of containment has been employed in trying to deal with the Somali crisis. This has proved both unpractical and has degraded the situation further. Institutional regional bodies such as the Inter Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD) and the League of Arab States can play an active role in instituting policies and direction, not only security and military weight, in seeking ways to strengthen the state, which will kill two birds with one stone; since this is good for security and better enables not only Somalia but neighboring states to be able to better achieve the set targets of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG’s).
Indications of new stresses have began to emerge within al-Shabab itself between forces either seeking primary focus of their domestic political goals within Somalia and those that seek to join the global jihad. Whilst the group is still grappling to define itself it is the right time for one to take strategic action with all options ranging from diplomatic overtures and other options that are available on the table, with force being the last option exercised. Approaches such as those being used in Afghanistan by talking to individual clans and even paying them off may be adopted especially to those seemed to sway more in favor of peace rather than radicalism, with a caveat that it may not systematically work to their perceived benefits.
Since the 9/11 attacks in America the fight against terrorism did gain a significant global action plan from all states, since policy formulation and enforcement was generally across the board. Anti-terror laws were some of the key policies that the Bush administration pushed many developing states to adopt through the state department. Kenya plays host to a vast population of Somali’s and Muslims in general, accounting for nearly 3 million citizens (according to latest census), with others arguing they number nearly 25% of the population. When security forces have been clamping down on terror suspects in recent years, there has been great animosity from the Muslim community in Kenya who do feel they are targeted.
It is the emanation of such sentiments that can fuel a new wave of violence. Instead of targeting a community one must and ultimately work with them. Work with a community to bring to fore the ills of society is but one of the key pillar stones of support that can lead to future solutions for not only local but global problems. This can set a great precedence in showing super powers that invasion is not always the option, but cooperation is a part of solving the problem. Coexistence is an essential ingredient to national building, and tolerance of all religion, ideological belief and political ideas is but one of the steps to fighting radical elements that hope to instill fear and apprehension into citizens of a growing democracy. The words of Voltaire put it into greater perspective when he mentioned “I may disagree with what you have to say, but I shall defend to the death your right to say it.”
Disregarding how much IGAD member states, the international community and other neighboring states has tried in helping the Somali people would be callous. However, one must also concede that enough has not been done and more needs to be addressed. Each state has their own modalities of fighting terrorism and insecurity, but it is through regional collective security analysis and state strengthening from both within Somalia and other member states that there can be significant strides made in curbing the spread of terrorism and returning stability into the area.
Strides have so far been made in trying to boost administrative civil service employee’s skill levels and work output by training them within Kenya and from receiving skilled expertise from UNDP. Police reforms are well underway in seeking a way to allow Somali’s to defend their homeland, though this has been criticized and needs new impetus in strategically analyzing the success of the project since some of the trainee’s waiver their loyalty and join the al-Shabab militia, taking with them arms and ammunition.
Security assistance alone cannot reverse the situation, Greater interest and assistance has to be given to governmental assistance in health, education and economic development because it is through the degradation of these key developmental strategies that has increased poverty which thus enflames the situation of radicalism. This strategy is applicable to all nations that share the same commonality of insurgency.
Placing priority to the situation will not only secure our borders, but it will reverse the damage posed by terrorism, increase trade and development amongst regional neighbors and open up newer markets, thereby securing jobs and creating investment and economic growth. It is through regional stability that countries such as Kenya and other regional emerging markets can be able to meet their full potential on a global scale.
In light of increased threats that terrorists have made this year alone measured by the intensity of their attacks and increased access to arms and domestic growth by mostly groups such as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and al-Shabab (AQAP), both mainly based in Yemen and Somalia respectfully, there is a need for states to evaluate their national security strategy and how they can also best address the increasing challenges that these radical groups pose to regional and international economic, social and developmental growth.
Kenya is no exception to the atrocity and malevolence of radicalism that kills and maims people of all ages, races and religions, without any regret for the actions they take in destroying lives, long established social and cultural ties and damage to property.
Prior to the perilous day of August 8th 1998, Kenya never imagined that terrorism would be a reality to an emerging country that held little ideological confrontations with the al-Qaeda wings. After the terrible blow that was infused under the orders of Osama Bin Laden, our geo-political and national security priorities have all but changed both regionally and internationally.
Somalia remains a key focal point whenever we discuss the emanation of any terror direct threat towards Kenya. State collapse is already too evident and forms the key backdrop to a not so insurmountable regional security conundrum. Insurgent groups such as al-Shabab, a known al-Qaeda sympathizer, continue to cause wanton destruction of lives and property, further weakening the position of the fragile Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) due to their un-acquiescent attitude towards their ideologies and imposition of laws quite similar to those espoused by the former Taliban régime in Afghanistan.
Terrorism and insurgency generally tends to be greatest in states that are both weak and poor. From the foothills of the Afghanistan and Pakistan border (Af-Pak) region to the growing threat of a resurging al-Qaeda in Yemen which is only 200 miles away from Somalia across the piracy-prone waters of the Gulf of Aden.
Security experts view the connection between Somalia and Yemen as one of increasing aggregation. There are existing unregulated businesses that operate from both the countries only divided by the pirate infested waters. It is believed that there is increased arms trade, migration of people and sale of fuel between both states. Strategic importance has to be given to the increasing state fragility in Yemen and the direct correlation it has with the already vulnerable Somalia. Arms smuggling from Yemen into Somalia has been well documented in recent years, with significant drops in shipments recorded once the Sana’a government clamps on key arms dealers and border control in heightened.
In a recent article written by Ginny Hill and Sally Healy for Catham House, they said that “Yemen and Somalia face parallel challenges: weak or ineffective governments grappling with localized insurgencies, resurgent terrorist groups with links to Al Qaeda, and severe economic difficulties.” Due to the lack of control and security deployment capabilities of both fighting and limiting the spread of insurgency, they have proved to be a great threat to both regional and international security.
Only recently two mail bombs emanating from Yemen addressed to synagogues in Chicago were found on board some cargo planes, with another threat reaching as far as the German Chancellor’s office. These threats were said to have originated from the same bomb maker as the Christmas Day failed underwear bomb orchestrated by Nigerian born Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab. Unconfirmed documentation indicated that some known leaders of AQAP had moved from Yemen into Somalia, thereby heightening the security concern.
Tactical analysis is also one of the ways to gauge the extent of progression that both groups have made in terms of arming and grouping. al-Shabab has proved to be more of a direct threat internally to the people of Somalia, with relatively new tactics of regional bombings, with the July bombings in Uganda being their first attempt out of Uganda. They have also gained the experience of how to use Improvised Explosive Devises (IED’s) similar to those used in Iraq and Afghanistan, thereby giving it an international connection. On the other hand, AQAP has not yet used IED’s, but has proved dangerous, especially after their attempt in trying to assassinate a Saudi prince and their call to eliminate the royal family. Recent news indicating that bombs have been originating from Yemen destined for Western states has also been discomforting.
Since the 1998 terrorist attacks and that later on in Mombasa, the state security apparatus gave increased impetus to averting future attacks and also shielding the nation from any aspects in relation to terrorism. Especially after the June twin bombings in Kampala, the reality of the fight against terrorism was more evident with the “illegal” rendition of Kenyans to face criminal trial in relation to the bombings, with al-Shabab claiming responsibility. Intelligence briefings indicate that Osama Bin Laden had relayed instructions to the U.S. embassy bombers in Nairobi via a Yemeni intermediary, only proving how Yemen does play a role in perpetuating terrorism regionally.
Reports indicate that Al-Shabab has grown further into the East African region and developed new cell networks. Investigations have also stated that the bombs that exploded in Uganda were assembled and transported from Kenya, with a claim that there were similar attacks meant for Kenya.
The effects of terrorism are all but real to Kenyan’s, especially the tourism sector that contributes a large chunk of the GDP. After both terrorist attacks there was a slump in the inbound numbers of tourists especially from Western nations that make up a large percentage of the frequent clientele.
We may downplay the threats that are posed due to porous borders, mass immigration and the threat of small arms proliferation. In early October, a German national was arrested by Kenyan police after reports filtered in that he was destined to Somalia on a suicide bombing mission. It is this rise in the number of people that have come into the country destined for Somalia as “jihads” that is a threat also to the Kenyan community and their states of origin.
Most of all, and the significant focal point, is the danger posed to the people of Kenya and the East African region (including foreigners). Roughly 70 people were killed in Kampala during the July bombings, 200 killed in the 1998 Kenyan bombings and 11 Tanzanians were killed in Dar es Salaam. Sadly, this is nothing as compared to the loss of life that is witnessed within Somalia itself. Terrorism is more of a threat within the source of origin that it is anywhere else.
With that in mind, Kenya has a role to play not only exerting hard power, but also enforcing soft power to its neighbors. Playing host to one of the largest refugee camps in the world and also having one of the largest Somali diaspora groups, there is need for increased cooperation and outreach to these groups if the situation in Somalia is to change. A bottom up approach will be the best solution for the citizens of Somalia to know how best they can sort out their internal conflict in an amicable manner.
Over many years the cold war style policy of containment has been employed in trying to deal with the Somali crisis. This has proved both unpractical and has degraded the situation further. Institutional regional bodies such as the Inter Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD) and the League of Arab States can play an active role in instituting policies and direction, not only security and military weight, in seeking ways to strengthen the state, which will kill two birds with one stone; since this is good for security and better enables not only Somalia but neighboring states to be able to better achieve the set targets of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG’s).
Indications of new stresses have began to emerge within al-Shabab itself between forces either seeking primary focus of their domestic political goals within Somalia and those that seek to join the global jihad. Whilst the group is still grappling to define itself it is the right time for one to take strategic action with all options ranging from diplomatic overtures and other options that are available on the table, with force being the last option exercised. Approaches such as those being used in Afghanistan by talking to individual clans and even paying them off may be adopted especially to those seemed to sway more in favor of peace rather than radicalism, with a caveat that it may not systematically work to their perceived benefits.
Since the 9/11 attacks in America the fight against terrorism did gain a significant global action plan from all states, since policy formulation and enforcement was generally across the board. Anti-terror laws were some of the key policies that the Bush administration pushed many developing states to adopt through the state department. Kenya plays host to a vast population of Somali’s and Muslims in general, accounting for nearly 3 million citizens (according to latest census), with others arguing they number nearly 25% of the population. When security forces have been clamping down on terror suspects in recent years, there has been great animosity from the Muslim community in Kenya who do feel they are targeted.
It is the emanation of such sentiments that can fuel a new wave of violence. Instead of targeting a community one must and ultimately work with them. Work with a community to bring to fore the ills of society is but one of the key pillar stones of support that can lead to future solutions for not only local but global problems. This can set a great precedence in showing super powers that invasion is not always the option, but cooperation is a part of solving the problem. Coexistence is an essential ingredient to national building, and tolerance of all religion, ideological belief and political ideas is but one of the steps to fighting radical elements that hope to instill fear and apprehension into citizens of a growing democracy. The words of Voltaire put it into greater perspective when he mentioned “I may disagree with what you have to say, but I shall defend to the death your right to say it.”
Disregarding how much IGAD member states, the international community and other neighboring states has tried in helping the Somali people would be callous. However, one must also concede that enough has not been done and more needs to be addressed. Each state has their own modalities of fighting terrorism and insecurity, but it is through regional collective security analysis and state strengthening from both within Somalia and other member states that there can be significant strides made in curbing the spread of terrorism and returning stability into the area.
Strides have so far been made in trying to boost administrative civil service employee’s skill levels and work output by training them within Kenya and from receiving skilled expertise from UNDP. Police reforms are well underway in seeking a way to allow Somali’s to defend their homeland, though this has been criticized and needs new impetus in strategically analyzing the success of the project since some of the trainee’s waiver their loyalty and join the al-Shabab militia, taking with them arms and ammunition.
Security assistance alone cannot reverse the situation, Greater interest and assistance has to be given to governmental assistance in health, education and economic development because it is through the degradation of these key developmental strategies that has increased poverty which thus enflames the situation of radicalism. This strategy is applicable to all nations that share the same commonality of insurgency.
Placing priority to the situation will not only secure our borders, but it will reverse the damage posed by terrorism, increase trade and development amongst regional neighbors and open up newer markets, thereby securing jobs and creating investment and economic growth. It is through regional stability that countries such as Kenya and other regional emerging markets can be able to meet their full potential on a global scale.
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