Talking about terrorism and security within a regional scope can shift ones mind to perennial sets of crises that continue to dog states within the Horn of Africa and the Middle East region, with a smaller scope of interest on the tiny cattle rustling and fight for cross-border resources amongst neighboring states.
In light of increased threats that terrorists have made this year alone measured by the intensity of their attacks and increased access to arms and domestic growth by mostly groups such as al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and al-Shabab (AQAP), both mainly based in Yemen and Somalia respectfully, there is a need for states to evaluate their national security strategy and how they can also best address the increasing challenges that these radical groups pose to regional and international economic, social and developmental growth.
Kenya is no exception to the atrocity and malevolence of radicalism that kills and maims people of all ages, races and religions, without any regret for the actions they take in destroying lives, long established social and cultural ties and damage to property.
Prior to the perilous day of August 8th 1998, Kenya never imagined that terrorism would be a reality to an emerging country that held little ideological confrontations with the al-Qaeda wings. After the terrible blow that was infused under the orders of Osama Bin Laden, our geo-political and national security priorities have all but changed both regionally and internationally.
Somalia remains a key focal point whenever we discuss the emanation of any terror direct threat towards Kenya. State collapse is already too evident and forms the key backdrop to a not so insurmountable regional security conundrum. Insurgent groups such as al-Shabab, a known al-Qaeda sympathizer, continue to cause wanton destruction of lives and property, further weakening the position of the fragile Somali Transitional Federal Government (TFG) due to their un-acquiescent attitude towards their ideologies and imposition of laws quite similar to those espoused by the former Taliban régime in Afghanistan.
Terrorism and insurgency generally tends to be greatest in states that are both weak and poor. From the foothills of the Afghanistan and Pakistan border (Af-Pak) region to the growing threat of a resurging al-Qaeda in Yemen which is only 200 miles away from Somalia across the piracy-prone waters of the Gulf of Aden.
Security experts view the connection between Somalia and Yemen as one of increasing aggregation. There are existing unregulated businesses that operate from both the countries only divided by the pirate infested waters. It is believed that there is increased arms trade, migration of people and sale of fuel between both states. Strategic importance has to be given to the increasing state fragility in Yemen and the direct correlation it has with the already vulnerable Somalia. Arms smuggling from Yemen into Somalia has been well documented in recent years, with significant drops in shipments recorded once the Sana’a government clamps on key arms dealers and border control in heightened.
In a recent article written by Ginny Hill and Sally Healy for Catham House, they said that “Yemen and Somalia face parallel challenges: weak or ineffective governments grappling with localized insurgencies, resurgent terrorist groups with links to Al Qaeda, and severe economic difficulties.” Due to the lack of control and security deployment capabilities of both fighting and limiting the spread of insurgency, they have proved to be a great threat to both regional and international security.
Only recently two mail bombs emanating from Yemen addressed to synagogues in Chicago were found on board some cargo planes, with another threat reaching as far as the German Chancellor’s office. These threats were said to have originated from the same bomb maker as the Christmas Day failed underwear bomb orchestrated by Nigerian born Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab. Unconfirmed documentation indicated that some known leaders of AQAP had moved from Yemen into Somalia, thereby heightening the security concern.
Tactical analysis is also one of the ways to gauge the extent of progression that both groups have made in terms of arming and grouping. al-Shabab has proved to be more of a direct threat internally to the people of Somalia, with relatively new tactics of regional bombings, with the July bombings in Uganda being their first attempt out of Uganda. They have also gained the experience of how to use Improvised Explosive Devises (IED’s) similar to those used in Iraq and Afghanistan, thereby giving it an international connection. On the other hand, AQAP has not yet used IED’s, but has proved dangerous, especially after their attempt in trying to assassinate a Saudi prince and their call to eliminate the royal family. Recent news indicating that bombs have been originating from Yemen destined for Western states has also been discomforting.
Since the 1998 terrorist attacks and that later on in Mombasa, the state security apparatus gave increased impetus to averting future attacks and also shielding the nation from any aspects in relation to terrorism. Especially after the June twin bombings in Kampala, the reality of the fight against terrorism was more evident with the “illegal” rendition of Kenyans to face criminal trial in relation to the bombings, with al-Shabab claiming responsibility. Intelligence briefings indicate that Osama Bin Laden had relayed instructions to the U.S. embassy bombers in Nairobi via a Yemeni intermediary, only proving how Yemen does play a role in perpetuating terrorism regionally.
Reports indicate that Al-Shabab has grown further into the East African region and developed new cell networks. Investigations have also stated that the bombs that exploded in Uganda were assembled and transported from Kenya, with a claim that there were similar attacks meant for Kenya.
The effects of terrorism are all but real to Kenyan’s, especially the tourism sector that contributes a large chunk of the GDP. After both terrorist attacks there was a slump in the inbound numbers of tourists especially from Western nations that make up a large percentage of the frequent clientele.
We may downplay the threats that are posed due to porous borders, mass immigration and the threat of small arms proliferation. In early October, a German national was arrested by Kenyan police after reports filtered in that he was destined to Somalia on a suicide bombing mission. It is this rise in the number of people that have come into the country destined for Somalia as “jihads” that is a threat also to the Kenyan community and their states of origin.
Most of all, and the significant focal point, is the danger posed to the people of Kenya and the East African region (including foreigners). Roughly 70 people were killed in Kampala during the July bombings, 200 killed in the 1998 Kenyan bombings and 11 Tanzanians were killed in Dar es Salaam. Sadly, this is nothing as compared to the loss of life that is witnessed within Somalia itself. Terrorism is more of a threat within the source of origin that it is anywhere else.
With that in mind, Kenya has a role to play not only exerting hard power, but also enforcing soft power to its neighbors. Playing host to one of the largest refugee camps in the world and also having one of the largest Somali diaspora groups, there is need for increased cooperation and outreach to these groups if the situation in Somalia is to change. A bottom up approach will be the best solution for the citizens of Somalia to know how best they can sort out their internal conflict in an amicable manner.
Over many years the cold war style policy of containment has been employed in trying to deal with the Somali crisis. This has proved both unpractical and has degraded the situation further. Institutional regional bodies such as the Inter Governmental Authority for Development (IGAD) and the League of Arab States can play an active role in instituting policies and direction, not only security and military weight, in seeking ways to strengthen the state, which will kill two birds with one stone; since this is good for security and better enables not only Somalia but neighboring states to be able to better achieve the set targets of the Millennium Development Goals (MDG’s).
Indications of new stresses have began to emerge within al-Shabab itself between forces either seeking primary focus of their domestic political goals within Somalia and those that seek to join the global jihad. Whilst the group is still grappling to define itself it is the right time for one to take strategic action with all options ranging from diplomatic overtures and other options that are available on the table, with force being the last option exercised. Approaches such as those being used in Afghanistan by talking to individual clans and even paying them off may be adopted especially to those seemed to sway more in favor of peace rather than radicalism, with a caveat that it may not systematically work to their perceived benefits.
Since the 9/11 attacks in America the fight against terrorism did gain a significant global action plan from all states, since policy formulation and enforcement was generally across the board. Anti-terror laws were some of the key policies that the Bush administration pushed many developing states to adopt through the state department. Kenya plays host to a vast population of Somali’s and Muslims in general, accounting for nearly 3 million citizens (according to latest census), with others arguing they number nearly 25% of the population. When security forces have been clamping down on terror suspects in recent years, there has been great animosity from the Muslim community in Kenya who do feel they are targeted.
It is the emanation of such sentiments that can fuel a new wave of violence. Instead of targeting a community one must and ultimately work with them. Work with a community to bring to fore the ills of society is but one of the key pillar stones of support that can lead to future solutions for not only local but global problems. This can set a great precedence in showing super powers that invasion is not always the option, but cooperation is a part of solving the problem. Coexistence is an essential ingredient to national building, and tolerance of all religion, ideological belief and political ideas is but one of the steps to fighting radical elements that hope to instill fear and apprehension into citizens of a growing democracy. The words of Voltaire put it into greater perspective when he mentioned “I may disagree with what you have to say, but I shall defend to the death your right to say it.”
Disregarding how much IGAD member states, the international community and other neighboring states has tried in helping the Somali people would be callous. However, one must also concede that enough has not been done and more needs to be addressed. Each state has their own modalities of fighting terrorism and insecurity, but it is through regional collective security analysis and state strengthening from both within Somalia and other member states that there can be significant strides made in curbing the spread of terrorism and returning stability into the area.
Strides have so far been made in trying to boost administrative civil service employee’s skill levels and work output by training them within Kenya and from receiving skilled expertise from UNDP. Police reforms are well underway in seeking a way to allow Somali’s to defend their homeland, though this has been criticized and needs new impetus in strategically analyzing the success of the project since some of the trainee’s waiver their loyalty and join the al-Shabab militia, taking with them arms and ammunition.
Security assistance alone cannot reverse the situation, Greater interest and assistance has to be given to governmental assistance in health, education and economic development because it is through the degradation of these key developmental strategies that has increased poverty which thus enflames the situation of radicalism. This strategy is applicable to all nations that share the same commonality of insurgency.
Placing priority to the situation will not only secure our borders, but it will reverse the damage posed by terrorism, increase trade and development amongst regional neighbors and open up newer markets, thereby securing jobs and creating investment and economic growth. It is through regional stability that countries such as Kenya and other regional emerging markets can be able to meet their full potential on a global scale.
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