Implications on governmental and social-economic stability as a consequence of the Government failure to send the suspects to the Hague

The government of Kenya is under a load of pressure, both from its citizens and the international community to end the culture of impunity and also to prosecute and bring to justice the perpetrators of the Post Election Violence (PEV).

As the International Criminal Court begins to indict six prominent individuals who are believed to hold the most responsibility over the violence, there are doubts as to the complacency of the government, especially the two principals, Messrs Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga, in handing over the indicted officials to the court to face prosecution in the likely event they do not hand themselves willingly to the court.

It is believed that the six individuals who hold the most responsibility come from both the Party of National Unity (PNU) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), and are  all very close officials to the two principals. It is speculated that the two bigwigs may not want their key lieutenants to be prosecuted.

A raft of issues does come up if the perpetrators do not go to the Hague. These issues do border on both domestic and international ramifications for the failure of the government to honor the Rome Statute that it has signed. It shall also violate the Agenda 4 reforms process and the National Accord, whereby perpetrators of the violence must be tried and justice must prevail.

International Impacts

The Chair of Eminent Persons lead by the Former Secretary General Koffi Annan came into Kenya at the height of the PEV to seek an amicable solution to ending the violence and getting both principals to sign a deal. Koffi Annan was designated by the international community to oversee an end to the violence.

A failure by the government tot honor their agreement with the team lead by Koffi Annan would resort to international condemnation and a clear violation of our international agreements. This shall risk endangering our relationships with various states and jeopardize our reputation with various governments.

Focus by the international community has remained on Africa as a whole since they have the largest case logs within the ICC. Omar Al Bashir also continues to be the most evasive individual so far that has been indicted by the ICC. Noting that Bashir is a neighboring country there shall be a regional focus on our failure to prosecute individuals responsible for various atrocities.

The United Nations Security Council is mandate to take action against states that fail to honor its agreements and violates its mandate. There is a likely chance that there shall be significant pressure coming from the Security Council to force the Kenyan government to comply with the ICC via the use of economic sanctions targeted at the state.

The likelihood however of the Security Council imposing direct state sanctions may be debatable due to the sensitivity of endangering the people who need these funds and the economic work force. It is easy for a state to directly get affected by sanctions and place the buck on its citizens who suffer because of state failure. As a result, states shall seek to impose direct sanctions on the leaders it feels are most responsible, especially those indicted, including the senior officials that refuse to cooperate with the ICC. Action that can be taken against individuals can be in the form of direct sanctions such as the freezing of bank assets, travel restrictions extended even to family members, amongst others.

Recently, the Department for International Development (DfID), a sub-branch of the Commonwealth and Foreign Office in the British governments, suspended all funding to the Ministry of Education over its graft allegations. States such as the US decided not to follow suit simply because it channels its resources through other bodies directed to the schools without necessarily giving the ministry money, eliminating doubts of corruption. It is this same principle that may begin to occur from various other governments.

International organizations have set up base within Kenya as their regional headquarters. Companies such as the Tata Group, Virgin Atlantic, General Electrics, Microsoft, Google, etc. have ventured into our market as a result of our economic growth potential and perceived stability in a region void of problems. If we return to violence then we place in critical condition our future investor friendly environment. Existing companies shall decide to pull out of our country because of the turmoil and uncertainty that is detrimental to them.

In international diplomatic circles we shall cease being strong and cooperative especially with the West. We place in danger our relationship with strong and friendly states that share strong ties. The image we shall exude is one of repression and a slip in democracy, proving critics right that democracy is in danger in Africa.

Domestic Impacts

Once a great injustice has been committed, it is only human nature for one to seek redress so that the injustice cannot happen again and the instigator can be justly punished. That also applies to the scenario of the Kenyan violence. The individuals who bore the brunt of mayhem and tribal attacks do seek redress form the fact that The Hague shall prosecute those it feels are dully responsible.

Under the Kibaki administration there has been an increased strategy aimed at increasing the countries economy. The idea based on the Vision 2030 master plan to elevate the country into a middle-income one.

In the likely event that there are economic sanctions, withdrawal of donor assistance, loss in the investors, and even sludge in trade, there is a raft of issues that shall follow that will affect millions of Kenyans reliant upon the current market.

Last year the Foreign Policy Magazine released its Failed States Index, indicating that Kenya is the 13^th most failed state in the world. A failure by the state to prosecute indicted individuals shall result in questions being raised over the level of graft and impunity within the country. This shall further raise our level and degrade the gains the state has made over the years. Market volatility shall ensue if there is a loss in confidence.

Standards & Poor (S&P) recently upgraded Kenya to a level B+ rating. This further added confidence towards our market and allows the government to meet its infrastructural financing with cheaper options available in borrowing money. Any turmoil that may arise because of violence, tension or impunity shall force such credit rating companies to downgrade the state and reduce the confidence that was being built.

Any outbreak of violence within the country will immediately bring back the dire consequences that were sparked off as a result of the 2008 violence. What we shall see is an increase in commodity prices at a time when the consumer is meant to be spending the most, leading to a loss for businesses and as a result layoffs shall be necessary for businesses to maintain at least some break-even margin in the first quarter of the next financial year.

Commodity prices shall skyrocket, resulting in increased poverty and a larger percentage of the population being more vulnerable to malnutrition. This loss of significant gains shall lead us to not being able to achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015. In addition, our accessibility to basic goods and services, education, health and other critical issues that affect our daily interactions shall be placed in jeopardy.

Horticulture has been one of our largest contributors to our Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A large bulk of the export tends to go to the European Union.

Vision 2030 requires a huge amount of financing so that we can be able to meet our infrastructural agenda. Kenya must spend heavily in order for a large percentage of the population to receive the gains of being a middle-income state. As political turmoil does affect our markets, this all boils down to our short and long term bond market stability and price volatility. Uncertainty over our political climate shall result in a decline in the Kenyan bond assets held by investors as they try to dump them before any further violence breaks out that shall place us in any jeopardy. The “herd mentality” shall result in a rally against the Kenyan bonds and shall result in the government being unable to access money at a cheaper rate, resulting in the taxpayer paying more for developmental projects.

The above shall result in the government drifting away from their economic agenda. Kenya shall therefore be at jeopardy of becoming an increasingly corrupt and failed state, risking jeopardizing the reform agenda and constitutional implementation process due to political intrigues.

Income per capita gains shall drastically fall if there is any escalation of violence. Political bickering and instability shall also serve to act as a catalyst towards increased poverty and insecurity.

The loss of confidence within the state institutions will only deteriorate services the citizens and the business community rely upon for growth.

Effects to the Coalition government

Legitimacy towards the Grand Coalition government remained exceptionally low even since the brokering of the National Accord. The international community believed that the coalition was bound to collapse due to in bickering between the two main parties, PNU and ODM.

State failure shall dominate all discussions if there is a lack of cooperation from the government. Questions shall begin to remain abound regarding the capability and the commitment of the government to fulfill what they had promised to the electorate.

Parliament shall dominate the main fighting between both parties, since they do not share the same variances of party loyalty and have been continuously dogged with bickering. Members of Parliament may remain adamant on their party lines, with some switching allegiances due to a fallout within their houses.

Since the introduction of the new standing orders and the constitutional changes that have introduced a James Madison system of checks and balances, Parliament has asserted its independent role within our national politics. However, whipping of support has remained low and in need of dire intervention from both principals. The continues ignorance by some MPs to heed to their parties policies and directives has resulted in a backlash that affects the government business and introduction of key legislature. Any further tension or strain, especially regarding the ICC shall ultimately send the MPs in a flurry for their own political safety and strategically placing themselves for 2012.

With the loss of key votes needed by the government within parliament to pass significant bills within the house, it will ultimately mean that there shall be a paralysis within the government. Another scenario would be one of limited goals and agendas being achieved.

With the likelihood that external intervention may be needed to nudge the government to comply there is bound to be a reflection of negative growth within the government and their commitment to alleviating the situation within Kenya. As a regional hub and an economic powerhouse, international organizations and donor states shall change their perception of the Kenyan government.

Partisan intervention is the most likely took that is going to be employed by the international community so that intervention can empower one group, at the expense of another (that being the key perpetrators and senior government officials, including the principals).

Economic growth has long been primed as one of the key pillar stones that the Kibaki administration wants to be recognized for achieving. Nevertheless, the ICC indictment and the subsequent failure of the government to cooperate effectively with it would lead to negative effects towards the government. Significant reverberating effects shall be felt and there is bound to be a negative backlash.

Kibaki’s legacy and that of his administration, including the reputation of the Prime Minister, are going to be sharply criticized for years. There is also bound to be negative effects that shall tarnish the government’s reputation. The likelihood of many politicians coming back to power after such a calamity would be unlikely unless they openly push for cooperation with the ICC and seek justice, only due to the fallout effects. 

Agenda 4 remained one of the key objectives to be completed by the Koffi Annan lead mediation team. If the ICC does not go through then there is bound to be a loss of significant gains in the reform agenda for the government. Only by allowing the ICC can the government fully be given the green light as being one that is stable and having achieved a mass number of gains.