As the news seems to suggest that the last bastion for
the Al-Shabaab insurgents has been occupied by Kenya Defense Forces ‘(KDF) and
Somali TFG fighters, there is a sense that the worst of the fighting is now
over and little pockets of resistance remain within Southern Somalia.
However, it is important to note that there are many
measures that need to remain in place to ensure lasting security and peace
within the Southern sector of Somalia. In a vast arid area, Southern Somalia is
not an easy walk over, but represents an arena that has faced little if no
development over the last two decades. There are high levels of
disenfranchisement, massive levels of people remain displaced and the economic
ruin is on a sporadic scale.
Once the KDF and largely AMISOM troops begin to leave
Somalia there are sets of various challenges that remain within the area. With
a weak central government that is learning to rein in power, coupled with the
problem of pleasing the various clans, there are little prospects that the
government can survive without some form of external intervention mechanism or
assistance for the next few years. This technically means that the
international community and the member states that are embroiled in the
security operation within Somalia may remain there for the foreseeable future.
Little exit strategy plans have been drafted by the United Nations Security
Council or the African Union, and there seems to be no conclusive draw down
plan for troop withdrawals.
Having such information made public may also render
the security operation in jeopardy, since the insurgents other groups of ill
repute may lie low and bay time to amass resources and await the foreign
departure. As witnessed in Afghanistan
when the United States held a troop draw down in favor of amassing pressure on
the Iraqi war, there was little thought left in trying to quell the elements of
insurgents that were tucked away in the Afghan highlands, who later on emerged
in a more coordinated and financed campaign. With Somalia, the history of how
the Al Shabaab came to power only shows that strong institutions must be
created and a strict security plan should be adhered to in order as to ensure
that there is no threat of a reemergence of any extremist group.
The fragility of the Somali economy that has not
received any major boost for the past twenty years means that the Somali
government cannot effectively run or function its government without external
assistance. Security remains paramount since there are still pockets of
resistance that threaten to kill or attack government officials and other
installations. These can represent a serious breach towards the development of
institutional growth within Somalia.
Did the push by Kenyan troops into Somalia achieve the
results and meet the expectations of the big wigs in Nairobi? So far the most significant
aim was to ensure that Al Shabaab did not remain with any control of Kismayu
(or the Southern Sector), thereby eliminating their financial and tactical base
via the port city and their ability to mobilize an army or spread their
ideology. As the KDF forces and AMISOM troops seek to stabilize all towns and
ensure that Al Shabaab does not regroup, it does diminish the technical
capabilities and limits the options available to the terror group. Their only
option may be to continue the fighting through guerilla tactics, but this shall
have a lesser impact as they had before.
Lessons can be drawn from various crises or wartime
reconstruction efforts that are ongoing throughout the world. Somalia however
represents a set of complex challenges due to the two decades of conflict it
has been facing.
The most important tool that can ensure continued
security and lasting peace within Somalia is by ensuring that there is a well
trained and effective Somali National Army. By empowering the central
government and the army with a well equipped and funded arsenal it can delimit
the ability of other rag-tag groups from merging and threatening the Somali
government again.
With President Kibaki’s term coming to an end and with
a splendid job done in sending in troops to Somalia (a major policy move from a
Kenyan president) the job may seem quite done for the administration and a well
jotted legacy in the offing. However, the threat posed by any fast moved
withdrawal may affect the future of the so far short lived period of calm and
tilt the newfound status-quo in another spinoff.
As to when countries should move their troops out of
Somalia there needs to be a timeline and a clear and stipulated exit strategy. A
live and stimulated debate must remain vibrant from the rural homes of Somalia
to the capitals of the EAC. A clear time span shall bog down the costs and also
mitigate festered expectations. After all, AMISOM continues to try and assure
Somali leaders that their troops are not there to occupy, but to assist. Any
talk of prolonged stay by foreign troops may gain the insurgents traction in
spreading negative propaganda. It was after all the good will of the Somali
people that allowed the swift advancement of the AMISOM and TFG troops in
territories then occupied by the Al Shabaab, with little opposition in the way,
but rather astoundingly with open arms in many rural outlets.
Military strategists have ultimately achieved a great
milestone in restoring and pacifying war torn Somalia. The strategy now shifts
to that of restoration and reconciliation. These shall not be achieved through
the barrel of the gun but through diplomacy and development. The onus of
ensuring lasting peace falls squarely on the Somali government and its ability
to address historical injustices. As the guns may grow more silent by the day,
Somali’s history shows that a short lull may be pierced with a hail of grief.
More action needs to be taken fast to ensure that the mistakes of the past are
not repeated and that violence seems the only way to solve problems.
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