by Kevin Tuitoek on Wednesday, March 23, 2011 at 5:07pm
An analysis of the Libyan revolution and Gaddafi’s last stand.
Just as the proverbial folktale tells us of the man who cut down the beanstalk because of the threat from above, Gaddafi is a man that is facing a similar crisis, but with rather more dire consequences. He is trying to shoot his way through the problem, planting his own seed of war against his own people. Revolution is a manifestation of people in the midst of utter dissatisfaction. Libya is proving to be a macabre case within the revolts spreading within the Middle East and North Africa.
Events of the last few days with the effecting of the U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973 coalition no-fly zone over Libya has conjured up memories of the 2003 Iraqi operation “Shock and Awe” in a process to rid the country of Saddam Hussein. Targeted bombings of military installations and the complete decimation of Libya’s armed forces is the main target as to protect the civilians from a rogue leader.
Gaddafi has declared that he shall fight as a martyr and not cede power as easily as Mubarak or Ben Ali, but is determined to take what is rightfully his. He accused the opposition rebels of being terrorists sympathetic to Al-Qaeda and the youth getting high on drugs. He conjures up these statements on public stations (the state has a somewhat monopoly of the airwaves) to peddle falsehoods and stoke fear in his subjects.
When the people of Libya rose against their leader for 41 years, they were mercilessly gunned down. The rebels managed to gain control of a large chunk of the East, controlling much of Libya’s oil refineries. The town of Benghazi has become the stronghold for the “national transition council”, a team of nine individuals mainly teamed up of lawyers, a former minister and other influential figureheads who seem to be issuing orders form a courthouse, but seemingly having internal wrangling over how to handle some serious issues.
Since the commencement of the battle in Libya, international oil prices have skyrocketed, averaging $102 per barrel, only affected by Japan’s earthquake. Libya is the ninth largest global exporter of oil, thereby adding a significant shortfall to the global production output since their productivity has declined by more than half.
Economic prospects for growth shall be significantly affected globally as the oil process continues to rise globally, with the unrest in the Middle East taking its toll on global prices. This and the preservation of human rights and protection of civilians do bring in the factor of the role the international community has to play in Libya.
As the U.N. Security Council passed a resolution to implement a no-fly zone over Libya it immediately implemented by France, the United Kingdom, America, Italy and other European countries offering logistical, tactical and possibly humanitarian support throughout Libya. So far, no Libyan warplane has been able to fly since the implementation of the resolution. The coalition forces have even gone as far as bombing one of Gaddafi’s main compounds in Tripoli claiming it was aimed at the tactical command centre used by his loyalists to communicate.
Fighting is bound to continue and the coalition shall bomb his military installations with a salvo of missiles to reduce his likelihood of perpetuating violence against civilians and the opposing rebels. Current military equipment in Libya may seem as no match to the coalition troop’s firepower, but it is by far still an aggressive means of waging war against the rebels tucked away in the east. The fighting has reached a somewhat stalemate where no single unit is advancing on the other, but rather maintaining ground.
Ground forces within Libya loyal to Gaddafi continue to bombard a rebel stronghold in the west and are seemingly caught up in a vicious stalemate in a town in the east fearing bombarding from coalition forces and rebel attacks on the highway. However, the financial wealth of Gaddafi cannot be estimated. The central bank is estimated to have over $6.5 billion in reserves. This can easily fund a long vicious war.
Arming the rebels may serve as a tool to deter Gaddafi’s forces from advancing further into the East, killing more civilians and causing serious loss of life and increased danger fro civilians. Funding the rebels is far more of a cheaper option than direct intervention by international forces as this would minimize the risk of affecting the political climate with external interference, changing the face of the revolution. Once Gaddafi realizes that he is up against a seemingly endless supply of rebels bearing weapons and equipment that does add pressure to him, this shall make him concede and at most open negotiations with the rebels.
Implementing the no-fly zone may have been a tactical decision that has helped change some previous misfortunes of the rebels, but it is not the core of where Gaddafi’s forces have more influence. Their ground support teams are by far more advanced than the rebels who hold up Kalashnikov rifles and handguns. They remain largely undisciplined and disorganized as compared to Gaddafi’s loyalists. They are a mix of former lawyers, pensioners, mutineers and other volunteers that want to join the resistance. Their only tactical advantage is that army conscription is compulsory in Libya. After a few lessons, they are led into the field to fight for their cause, democracy.
What is emerging out of Libya is a mixture of both progressive measures against dysfunctional leadership. Coalition forces may be successful in subduing Gaddafi, but by far the clear lack of significant leadership structure exuded by the revolution council has shown that the transition may be rocky.
Bombing their way through Libya is not the only solution that shall be the stroke of luck leading to the collapse of Gaddafi’s regime. It calls for an inclusive process by all parties, especially the Arab states and the African Union (after all he did serve as the chair for a year). Arab states need to be included in the response to removing Gaddafi from power. Resentment over the Iraqi war is still prevalent and the U.S. has just only recovered from a bruising character perception within the Arab world. The likelihood that this may be seen as a Western intervention is high. The arrival of two Qatari jets in Italy only merely helps, but the inclusion of other Arabic states is needed to solve the first stage of the Libyan crisis.
The AU has failed to respond amicably to what is happening in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt, seemingly ineffective in the face of revolution. There has been a pin drop silence from the AU panel and not any conversation or action can be audible within the international community, almost making it look incompetent in dealing with the issue at hand. Solutions need to come from other areas to ensure that there is cohesion in the plan at hand. All states want to be assured that the Libyan population shall be protected, but states need to be more vocal in their response.
Within the Middle East and Northern Africa, revolutions are the only constant, but the seeds of discord are individually unique. Gaddafi may be subdued, but he shall not leave easily. He may be lacking in friends but he has a lot of financial backing. The likelihood of seeing an end to Libya’s crisis soon may only come from Gaddafi himself ceding power, but the real question is who is prepared to fill his shoes.
Just as the proverbial folktale tells us of the man who cut down the beanstalk because of the threat from above, Gaddafi is a man that is facing a similar crisis, but with rather more dire consequences. He is trying to shoot his way through the problem, planting his own seed of war against his own people. Revolution is a manifestation of people in the midst of utter dissatisfaction. Libya is proving to be a macabre case within the revolts spreading within the Middle East and North Africa.
Events of the last few days with the effecting of the U.N. Security Council Resolution 1973 coalition no-fly zone over Libya has conjured up memories of the 2003 Iraqi operation “Shock and Awe” in a process to rid the country of Saddam Hussein. Targeted bombings of military installations and the complete decimation of Libya’s armed forces is the main target as to protect the civilians from a rogue leader.
Gaddafi has declared that he shall fight as a martyr and not cede power as easily as Mubarak or Ben Ali, but is determined to take what is rightfully his. He accused the opposition rebels of being terrorists sympathetic to Al-Qaeda and the youth getting high on drugs. He conjures up these statements on public stations (the state has a somewhat monopoly of the airwaves) to peddle falsehoods and stoke fear in his subjects.
When the people of Libya rose against their leader for 41 years, they were mercilessly gunned down. The rebels managed to gain control of a large chunk of the East, controlling much of Libya’s oil refineries. The town of Benghazi has become the stronghold for the “national transition council”, a team of nine individuals mainly teamed up of lawyers, a former minister and other influential figureheads who seem to be issuing orders form a courthouse, but seemingly having internal wrangling over how to handle some serious issues.
Since the commencement of the battle in Libya, international oil prices have skyrocketed, averaging $102 per barrel, only affected by Japan’s earthquake. Libya is the ninth largest global exporter of oil, thereby adding a significant shortfall to the global production output since their productivity has declined by more than half.
Economic prospects for growth shall be significantly affected globally as the oil process continues to rise globally, with the unrest in the Middle East taking its toll on global prices. This and the preservation of human rights and protection of civilians do bring in the factor of the role the international community has to play in Libya.
As the U.N. Security Council passed a resolution to implement a no-fly zone over Libya it immediately implemented by France, the United Kingdom, America, Italy and other European countries offering logistical, tactical and possibly humanitarian support throughout Libya. So far, no Libyan warplane has been able to fly since the implementation of the resolution. The coalition forces have even gone as far as bombing one of Gaddafi’s main compounds in Tripoli claiming it was aimed at the tactical command centre used by his loyalists to communicate.
Fighting is bound to continue and the coalition shall bomb his military installations with a salvo of missiles to reduce his likelihood of perpetuating violence against civilians and the opposing rebels. Current military equipment in Libya may seem as no match to the coalition troop’s firepower, but it is by far still an aggressive means of waging war against the rebels tucked away in the east. The fighting has reached a somewhat stalemate where no single unit is advancing on the other, but rather maintaining ground.
Ground forces within Libya loyal to Gaddafi continue to bombard a rebel stronghold in the west and are seemingly caught up in a vicious stalemate in a town in the east fearing bombarding from coalition forces and rebel attacks on the highway. However, the financial wealth of Gaddafi cannot be estimated. The central bank is estimated to have over $6.5 billion in reserves. This can easily fund a long vicious war.
Arming the rebels may serve as a tool to deter Gaddafi’s forces from advancing further into the East, killing more civilians and causing serious loss of life and increased danger fro civilians. Funding the rebels is far more of a cheaper option than direct intervention by international forces as this would minimize the risk of affecting the political climate with external interference, changing the face of the revolution. Once Gaddafi realizes that he is up against a seemingly endless supply of rebels bearing weapons and equipment that does add pressure to him, this shall make him concede and at most open negotiations with the rebels.
Implementing the no-fly zone may have been a tactical decision that has helped change some previous misfortunes of the rebels, but it is not the core of where Gaddafi’s forces have more influence. Their ground support teams are by far more advanced than the rebels who hold up Kalashnikov rifles and handguns. They remain largely undisciplined and disorganized as compared to Gaddafi’s loyalists. They are a mix of former lawyers, pensioners, mutineers and other volunteers that want to join the resistance. Their only tactical advantage is that army conscription is compulsory in Libya. After a few lessons, they are led into the field to fight for their cause, democracy.
What is emerging out of Libya is a mixture of both progressive measures against dysfunctional leadership. Coalition forces may be successful in subduing Gaddafi, but by far the clear lack of significant leadership structure exuded by the revolution council has shown that the transition may be rocky.
Bombing their way through Libya is not the only solution that shall be the stroke of luck leading to the collapse of Gaddafi’s regime. It calls for an inclusive process by all parties, especially the Arab states and the African Union (after all he did serve as the chair for a year). Arab states need to be included in the response to removing Gaddafi from power. Resentment over the Iraqi war is still prevalent and the U.S. has just only recovered from a bruising character perception within the Arab world. The likelihood that this may be seen as a Western intervention is high. The arrival of two Qatari jets in Italy only merely helps, but the inclusion of other Arabic states is needed to solve the first stage of the Libyan crisis.
The AU has failed to respond amicably to what is happening in Libya, Tunisia and Egypt, seemingly ineffective in the face of revolution. There has been a pin drop silence from the AU panel and not any conversation or action can be audible within the international community, almost making it look incompetent in dealing with the issue at hand. Solutions need to come from other areas to ensure that there is cohesion in the plan at hand. All states want to be assured that the Libyan population shall be protected, but states need to be more vocal in their response.
Within the Middle East and Northern Africa, revolutions are the only constant, but the seeds of discord are individually unique. Gaddafi may be subdued, but he shall not leave easily. He may be lacking in friends but he has a lot of financial backing. The likelihood of seeing an end to Libya’s crisis soon may only come from Gaddafi himself ceding power, but the real question is who is prepared to fill his shoes.
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